Lakers underdogs once more in WCF against Nuggets,

[tpols]

This is the first time in the post season the Lakers deserve to be underdogs.

[tpols]

Man, people are dumb. I said they should be favorites against the Grizzlies...look what happened.

I said they should be favorites against the Warriors....look what happened.

I guess it's a minority of fans that actually understand basketball. That, and this pathetic Bronie fluffer narrative about the Lakers being a bunch of scrubs actually got traction.

I made a lot of money off those series.

Wont be betting against Denver given the hugely different circumstances.

[Goldrush25]

There are a few inherent flaws with bookmaking.

In this case, bookmakers only have past history to go on. Problem is Nuggets have never faced this version of the Lakers. The algorithms that bookmakers use to create odds and lines are missing the most crucial element of this matchup, which is head-to-head.

That said the bookies don't need to be exactly right, they just have a solid sense of how the public views the series to position themselves for profit.

[ArbitraryWater]

There are a few inherent flaws with bookmaking.

In this case, bookmakers only have past history to go on. Problem is Nuggets have never faced this version of the Lakers. The algorithms that bookmakers use to create odds and lines are missing the most crucial element of this matchup, which is head-to-head.

its not an algorithm creating these odds. its humans like you and me. they take context into acc also, and decided to make the nuggets marginal favorites, based off their HCA basically. each team will be favorred in their home games, to a similar margin. but the lakers will need to win one on the road.

[Goldrush25]

its not an algorithm creating these odds. its humans like you and me. they take context into acc also, and decided to make the nuggets marginal favorites, based off their HCA basically. each team will be favorred in their home games, to a similar margin. but the lakers will need to win one on the road.

I don't know that using machine learning to create odds is the industry standard yet, but many modern odds makers are using machine learning and AI to aid them in making the most precise odds, and why wouldn't they? We're far removed from the 70s and 80s when they were writing everything on a chalkboard. Check out this article: https://www.feedconstruct.com/blog/h...%20the%20match.

Not saying algos are the end all be all but a useful tool nonetheless. They are essential to allow in-game betting.

[Full Court]

majority of fans?

What are you talking about? You have no idea how odds work, do you?

Its the experts/bookies that put the Nuggets as favorites.

Their track record is the best of anyone throughout sports history.

The fans are actually in majority picking Lakers, and yet bookies considering that, STILL have Lakers as underdogs.

Apparently you don't know how odds work. They fluctuate based on the number of people placing bets that a team will win. The Lakers are underdogs because more gamblers, i.e. fans, think the Lakers are going to lose than win.

[kawhileonard2]

What about these

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (Dallas 7th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (San Antonio 6th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (Golden State 8th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (Raptors 5th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (Lakers 1st)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...ason_odds.html (Lakers 2nd)

[3ba11]

Lebron's veteran super-team was an underdog to baby Wesbrick in 2012, so Lebron's skillset has always turned the on-paper talent favorite (preseason favorites) into playoff underdogs

It's a knock on his game that his brand of ball yields perennial underdogs regardless of cast.

Specifically, his abnormal ball-dominance for his size/position imposes spot-up roles and underdog status.. Meanwhile, expert jumpshooters can score a lot while the ball moves and teammates assist them, so their game yields great chemistry, strategy and dominant favorites

[ArbitraryWater]

Apparently you don't know how odds work. They fluctuate based on the number of people placing bets that a team will win. The Lakers are underdogs because more gamblers, i.e. fans, think the Lakers are going to lose than win.

the initial odds, first odds coming out, had the lakers as underdogs, you dumbass.


and they havent changed since even though MORE people are picking the lakers to win.


you know you can look up how many people are betting on one team, right?

[plowking]

The Nuggets are the first team that might actually be the favorite in reality.

No Dwight to throw at Jokic this time.

But the Lakers might actually be the best team in the league post trade deadline. I am unsure. Which is funny, because they might have been last year as well had LeBron and AD steered the front office to Westbrook.

Dwight never gave Jokic problems. It was foul trouble - and a lot of people remember some BS fouls he got in a few of the close games.

[PP34Deuce]

I think Vanderbilt should spend energy on Murray and Michael porter.

[1987_Lakers]

I think Vanderbilt should spend energy on Murray and Michael porter.

I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get much playing time in this series. Ham realized Schroder also gives you good defense while not being an offensive liability like Vanderbilt is.

[Micku]

I thought the Lakers after the trade had a really solid squad that fit well together to go far.

I thought they could beat Memphis. GSW vs Lakers could go either way, but it just depends on AD. I thought he's the key. And if GSW could shoot the lights out, which they didn't.

With Denver....idk man. Lakers can match up with them for sure. But this is a different Denver team than 2020.
I think it depends on LeBron's foot and health than AD. I'm leaning towards Denver because they seem to have more chemistry and Jokic is playing like he's the best in the world. Denver is also big enough to compete with the Lakers. I think the Lakers have more depth at the perimeter.

Lakers could pull it off, but I think this is more difficult than the rest. And I think this is the true finals. Denver seems like the final boss. Looking forward to seeing AD vs Jokic. Should be a fun series.