538: Heat are 74% favorites to beat the Lakers

[Axe]

It's going to be fun seeing welfarefan lose another bet.

[MaxPlayer]

Switch to the ELO forecast which is actually based on team ratings and head-to-head matchups. See what happens. You might have led with that if you any idea how their ratings systems work instead of going for the snazzy clickbait title.

Haha, they actually advertised this result?

If some formula I had been pushing squirted out a steamy brown turd of a forecast like this one, I'd pray that as few people noticed as possible and then quietly overhaul my methodology.

[Trollsmasher]

can LeBron win as the underdog yet again?

[TheCalmInsanity]

Right but the point is it's not even close to a guarantee. If you were given a 27% chance of dying on your way to work today, your ass would stay at home. And if not, then you're too stupid to understand 27%.

True but if you have two options of driving into work and have to pick one, and one has a 27% chance to die and one has a 73% chance to die I'd argue you'd probably stay the fck away from the 73%

[bladefd]

Switch to the ELO forecast which is actually based on team ratings and head-to-head matchups. See what happens. You might have led with that if you any idea how their ratings systems work instead of going for the snazzy clickbait title.

Yeah, you are right on the money.

Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players.

Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.

There is no doubt ELO holds more value than RAPTOR forecast for a team consisting of old players (LeBron, Rondo, Dwight, Danny, Smith, Dudley). Those guys have either short time remaining in the league or are past their prime.

Heat are a young team. Only Iguodala is on the old side and maybe Dragic. Everyone else is in their 20s or 30 in Butler's case. Haslem is old, but he doesn't play. That team has not even begun - most of them have not even entered their prime.

BTW- ELO has Lakers as favorites 55% to 45%

[TheCorporation]

can LeBron win as the underdog yet again?

TheHardestRoad

[KD7]

Heat are HEAVY favourites