Are Stats overrated?

[BigKAT]

I've seen stats being used as a major point in arguments.
Heck, I often turn to them myself when trying to prove a point.
How else are we meant to convince anyone if not by showing them FACTS rather then opinion..?

But still, I can't help but think that stats aren't everything.

When the 24 PPG come matters alot. Do they come in garbage time/losses or perhaps they usually come when the rest of the key guys are slumping and the offense stagnats?

Do the 12 Rebounds come in the last two minutes or the first quarter?

Is the FG% only so high because the player refuses to take bad shots? Or perhaps it is so low because teammates throw them the ball when the 24 second clock runs out..?

If so, what is the true rate for greatness? Is it simply winning?

What do you guys think? Are stats the flawed yet best way to compare players? Or is it an overhyped collection of data that doesn't reflect true skill?

I personally think that Stats are important, but they can also be misleading. A good example would be Marc Gasol on the 14' Grizz. A 55-win team, with their best guy averaging 17, 8 and 3. I bet that when people revisit that season 15 years from now they'll write him off as nothing special. But anyone who watched games just saw that the guy could ball and just made winning decisions.

[Bankaii]

You obviously have to apply context, as raw stats can be misleading.
But most of the time the stats tell the story.

[34-24 Footwork]

Looking at stats without watching the game is horrific. Nothing worse than new basketball fans "researching" the handcheck era without actually watching the games...let alone judging players based on their stats without watching their entire career.

Stats aren't overrated though. However, more often than not, they can be EXTREMELY misleading/manipulative.

You think team scouts recruit talents based on just stats??

[34-24 Footwork]

I've seen stats being used as a major point in arguments.
Heck, I often turn to them myself when trying to prove a point.
How else are we meant to convince anyone if not by showing them FACTS rather then opinion..?

But still, I can't help but think that stats aren't everything.

When the 24 PPG come matters alot. Do they come in garbage time/losses or perhaps they usually come when the rest of the key guys are slumping and the offense stagnats?

Do the 12 Rebounds come in the last two minutes or the first quarter?

Is the FG% only so high because the player refuses to take bad shots? Or perhaps it is so low because teammates throw them the ball when the 24 second clock runs out..?

If so, what is the true rate for greatness? Is it simply winning?

What do you guys think? Are stats the flawed yet best way to compare players? Or is it an overhyped collection of data that doesn't reflect true skill?

I personally think that Stats are important, but they can also be misleading. A good example would be Marc Gasol on the 14' Grizz. A 55-win team, with their best guy averaging 17, 8 and 3. I bet that when people revisit that season 15 years from now they'll write him off as nothing special. But anyone who watched games just saw that the guy could ball and just made winning decisions.

for making winning decisions without winning shit.

And FG% alone is an awful way to characterize the effectiveness of ANY scorer.

[BigKAT]

Looking at stats without watching the game is horrific. Nothing worse than new basketball fans "researching" the handcheck era without actually watching the games...let alone judging players based on their stats without watching their entire career.

Stats aren't overrated though. However, more often than not, they can be EXTREMELY misleading/manipulative.

You think team scouts recruit talents based on just stats??

Of course not.
But do you think all these All-Time lists made by ESPN/CBS/Sports Illustrated and such,

Lists that include players that have not played for over 30 years, do you think they don't rely on stats? I mean, how else could you rank someone so definetly? I think they go straight to win-shares and PER and what not.

I mean, I know Lebron James is an amazing player because I've seen him play. All I know about... say Bernard King is what stats he put up. Most of his games aren't too accessible.

[BigKAT]

for making winning decisions without winning shit.

And FG% alone is an awful way to characterize the effectiveness of ANY scorer.

Okay, just to be fair.

You've seen that OKC - Grizz series. (I assume you have)

That was some of the most poorly judged series I've seen.
TWO 4-point plays? Two? to save OKC in both occasions?

And not to mention Randolph being suspended for game 7. Just so the MVP won't have to go out in the 1st round. I got nothing against Durant or OKC but that series just felt wrong.

[Lord P]

Eyes lie. You can watch the game and think that RWB is a good defender but in reality, the stats will tell you otherwise.

[34-24 Footwork]

Okay, just to be fair.

You've seen that OKC - Grizz series. (I assume you have)

That was some of the most poorly judged series I've seen.
TWO 4-point plays? Two? to save OKC in both occasions?

And not to mention Randolph being suspended for game 7. Just so the MVP won't have to go out in the 1st round. I got nothing against Durant or OKC but that series just felt wrong.

Yeah. I was going for Memphis that series (big fan of Conley, Zbo). I thought that was the series that Memphis was gonna win. Is that the series where Zbo punched Adams in plain sight? Lol.

And Espn and etc is wrong too if these lists are compiled based on stats without context.

However, these lists are made specifically to draw controversy/clicks.

I like to go back and watch FULL games for the era that I wasn't a part of to gain proper perspective. Unfortunately, i don't think people do this often when judging the careers of retro players.

[34-24 Footwork]

Eyes lie. You can watch the game and think that RWB is a good defender but in reality, the stats will tell you otherwise.

This is a good point. Stats nerds say that Westbrook is an awful defender. But I guarantee that every point guard has a little anxiety knowing that they're going up against him. However, his gambling aggressiveness doesn't do him justice on paper.

[3ball]

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[COLOR="Darkgreen"]Lebron turns teammates into play-finishers by lowering their APG (playmaking) and increasing their assisted rate (play-finishing):[/COLOR]



[COLOR="White"]................................................[/COLOR]APG, ASSIST %[COLOR="White"]......[/COLOR] ASSISTED RATE

Wade [COLOR="Navy"]before[/COLOR] Lebron (04'-10'):[COLOR="White"].....[/COLOR] 6.6, 34.8%[COLOR="White"]..................[/COLOR]29.2% [COLOR="DarkGreen"]<---- links to nba.com data[/COLOR]
Wade [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR][COLOR="White"]...[/COLOR] Lebron (11'-14'):[COLOR="white"].....[/COLOR] 4.7, 25.5%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]40.3%

Irving [COLOR="Navy"]before[/COLOR] Lebron (12'-14'):[COLOR="white"]....[/COLOR] 5.8, 33.2%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]31.9%
Irving [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR][COLOR="white"]...[/COLOR] Lebron[COLOR="white"]..[/COLOR] (15'-16'):[COLOR="white"]..[/COLOR] 5.0, 25.6%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]32.7%

Bosh [COLOR="Navy"]before[/COLOR] Lebron (04'-10'):[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 2.2, 10.5%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]55.8%
Bosh [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR][COLOR="white"]...[/COLOR] Lebron (11'-14'):[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 1.6, 8.0%[COLOR="white"] ...................[/COLOR]71.6%

Love [COLOR="Navy"]before[/COLOR] Lebron (09'-14'):[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 2.5, 13.0%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]62.7%
Love [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR] [COLOR="White"]...[/COLOR]Lebron (15'-16'):[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 2.3, 11.4%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]80.0%

Mo Will [COLOR="Navy"]before[/COLOR] Lebron (05'-08'):[COLOR="White"]..[/COLOR] 5.7, 30.2%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]39.2%
Mo Will [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR]... Lebron (09'-10'):[COLOR="white"]..[/COLOR] 4.6, 22.3%[COLOR="white"]..................[/COLOR]47.6%


FYI...

Pippen [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR][COLOR="white"]...[/COLOR] Jordan 91'-93':[COLOR="White"]......[/COLOR] 6.5, 24.5%
Pippen [COLOR="Navy"]w/out[/COLOR] Jordan 94'-95':[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 5.4, 23.7%
Pippen [COLOR="DarkRed"]with[/COLOR][COLOR="White"]...[/COLOR] Jordan 96'-98':[COLOR="white"]......[/COLOR] 5.8, 25.1%




[COLOR="DarkGreen"]These stats prove that Lebron achieves his stats by reducing his teammates' stats and role.. His reduction of teammates' stats causes him team-hop and seek excessive supporting talent that can overcome the reduction.

Let's look at the real-life example: Kobe won 2 rings with Pau as 2nd option, whereas Lebron reduced All-NBA Love and 24/11 Bosh into weak 3rd options, and needed a perimeter stud (Wade/Kyrie) to be 2nd option - Lebron simply needed more help to overcome the reduction of his PF, whereas Kobe did not.

Furthermore, the question becomes WHY does Lebron reduce his teammates stats, specifically turn them from playmakers into play-finishers?.. The answer is simple: he employs a point guard style from the forward position - this adds a 2nd low-assisted, high time of possession player IN ADDITION to the existing point guard, which gives teammates less opportunity to assist and less time with the ball than other teams whose forwards have normal assisted rates and time of possession.

Unfortunately, by reducing teammates to play-finishers, Lebron promotes a sophomoric brand of basketball that can't succeed against the best playoff teams, who invariably play a superior brand of basketball.. Guys like Patty Mills and Boris Diaw are tasked with MAKING PLAYS for the Spurs - they aren't just play-finishers like Shumpert and JR Smith (who are actually more talented).
[/COLOR]
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[3ball]

.
Stats are very overrated without having access to ALL the relevant stats

Example 1:

Lebron's 36/13/9 from the 2015 Finals sounds great until you see that his time of possession was a preposterous 12.0 minutes per game, or 50% higher than the regular season leader John Wall's 8.2 minutes.. He was also barely double-teamed, as noted by ESPN.

So basically, the team was just clearing out for Lebron on every possession with no double-teaming [COLOR="darkred"]like a playground game[/COLOR] - knowing these things makes his stats less impressive even WITHOUT knowing he could only muster 39% shooting under this optimal, stat-padding format.

Example 2:

In the playoffs, Lebron averages 6.8 APG compared to Jordan's 5.7.. However, Lebron's assist average was achieved by REDUCING the assists of all his key teammates (as shown in previous post), whereas Jordan achieved his assists while often INCREASING his teammates' assists.

Unlike off-ball play, Lebron's ball-dominance doesn't require assisting from teammates, and the excessive time of possession further serves to reduce his teammates opportunity to playmake.. this "playground" style is optimal for individual stat accumulation, but not for winning.. Otoh, Jordan achieved superior scoring and efficiency with equal assists WITHIN a Spurs-like, equal-opportunity, non-ball-dominant system - [COLOR="darkRed"]this nuanced, sophisticated, winning approach requires far greater skill than Lebron's playground approach.[/COLOR]

[Lebron23]

3ball ruined a good thread again. Some Stats aren't created equal specially those guys who play in a lottery team.

[greatest-ever]

They are very important but it's not a substitute for actually watching the games.

There's posters on realgm, who think that comparing players comes down to straight up statistics and nothing else.

[Hey Yo]

3ball ruined a good thread again. Some Stats aren't created equal specially those guys who play in a lottery team.

Kevin Love and Chris Bosh put up great numbers with Minny and Toronto, but how many times were their teams down 20 going into the 4th or by 15 with 4mins left in the game that enabled them to do bulk up easier than normal stats?

Not saying a player shouldn't battle till games end, but of course the box scores and stats doesn't really bring that to the onlookers attention.

[bigkingsfan]

Furthermore, the question becomes WHY does Lebron reduce his teammates stats

Did you watch Kyrie in the playoff, his run was more impressive than any other MJ teammates.