My definitive clutch discussion of Bran, Kobe, Curry, Jordan, etc

[sundizz]

1996-97: Jordan, Pippen
1997-98: Jordan, Pippen, Stockton, Malone
1998-99: Duncan, Robinson
1999-2000: Bryant, Shaq
2000-2001: Bryant, Shaq, and Iverson
2001-2002: Bryant, Shaq, Kidd
2002-2003: Robinson, Duncan, Kidd
2003-2004: Bryant, Shaq
2004-2005: Duncan
2005-2006: Wade, Nowitzki
2006-2007: Lebron, Duncan
2007-2008: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2008-2009: Bryant, Gasol, Howard
2009-2010: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2010-2011: Dirk, Lebron, Wade
2011-2012: Russ, Durant, Lebron, Wade
2012-2013: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2013-2014: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2014-2015: Curry, Lebron

*If I didn’t include someone on this list it is because they didn’t have anything that great (under 15% PIE AND not someone people generally include in top 20 of all time discussion, such as the Glove).
**I only included players that made it to the finals that year.
***This is for the entire playoffs from that year (meaning, not just finals).

The filters are:
5 point differential or less
Last 5 minutes of the game or OT

(Player Impact Estimate) - Shows what % of a game’s (clutch part of the game’s as described above) events did that player impact:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): 51.3%
2. Michael Jordan (96-97): 41.2%
3. Dwyane Wade (05-06): 40.4%
4. Lebron James (06-07): 39.5%
5. Kobe Bryant (07-08): 35.5%
6. Lebron James (11-12): 32.2%
7. Kobe Bryant (00-01): 31.4%
8. Allen Iverson (00-01): 31.0%
9. Tim Duncan (06-07): 30.6%
10. Shaquille O’neal (99-00): 30.2%

Kobe Bryant (99-00): 29.9%
Kevin Durant (11-12): 29.0%
Kobe Bryant (09-10): 28.3%
Michael Jordan (97-98): 27.8%
Lebron James (12-13): 27.3
Stephen Curry (14-15): 26.9%
Pau Gasol (08-09): 26.2%
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): 25.8%
Shaquille O’neal (01-02): 25.5%
Pau Gasol (09-10): 25.2%
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): 24.3%
Tim Duncan (13-14): 23.6%
Lebron James (13-14): 22.2%
Karl Malone (97-98): 20.8%
Kobe Bryant (08-09): 19.7%
Tim Duncan (02-03): 19.7%
Dwyane Wade (11-12): 19.5%
Lebron James (10-11): 19.2%
Jason Kidd (01-02): 18.6%
David Robinson (98-99): 18.5%
Pau Gasol (07-08): 17.7%
David Robinson (02-03): 17%
Tim Duncan (98-99): 16.7%
Jason Kidd (02-03): 16.3%
Scottie Pippen (96-97): 17.1%
Dwyane Wade (10-11): 17.1%
Kobe Bryant (01-02): 17.0%
Lebron James (14-15): 16.5%
Dwyane Wade (13-14): 15.1%
Tim Duncan: (04-05): 14.4%
Dwight Howard (08-09): 14.4%
John Stockton (97-98): 14.0%
Tim Duncan (12-13): 12.9%
Kevin Garnett (07-08): 10.2%
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): 7.2%
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 6.8%
Scottie Pippen (97-98): 6.1%
Dwyane Wade (12-13): 3.7%
Kevin Garnett (09-10): 0.8%
Russell Westbrook (11-12): -1.3%

Net Rating (in the clutch as defined above) is Offensive Rating – Defensive Rating:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): +71.8
2. David Robinson (98-99): +62.5
3. Tim Duncan (98-99): +54.3
4. Shaquille O’neal (01-02): +50.3
5. Lebron James (13-14): +49.8
6. Kobe Bryant (01-02): +44.4
7. Scottie Pippen (96-97): +40.5
8. Michael Jordan (96-97): +39.7
9. Tim Duncan (13-14): +39.4
10. Lebron James (06-07): +37.3

Tim Duncan (06-07): +36.8
David Robinson (02-03): +35.0
Kobe Bryant (08-09): +32.2
Pau Gasol (08-09): +32.2
Kobe Bryant (99-00): +29.5
Shaquille O’neal (99-00): +29.2
Stephen Curry (14-15): +29.1
Dwyane Wade (13-14): +28.5
Dwyane Wade (05-06): +27.6
Kobe Bryant (00-01): +20.9
Allen Iverson (00-01): +20.7
Kobe Bryant (07-08): +20.3
Lebron James (11-12): +20.2
Dwyane Wade (10-11): +19.2
Lebron James (10-11): +19.2
Tim Duncan (04-05): +18.9
Pau Gasol (07-08): +18.4
Kobe Bryant (09-10): +17.3
Pau Gasol (09-10): +17.3
Scottie Pippen (97-98): +16.3
Michael Jordan (97-98): +16.1
Dwyane Wade (11-12): +13.1
Kevin Durant (11-12): +11.2
Russell Westbrook (11-12): +11.2
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): +10.8
Tim Duncan (02-03): +5.0
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 2.8
Lebron James (14-15): +1.8
Jason Kidd (02-03): +0.0
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): -0.7
Karl Malone (97-98): -0.8
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): -1.0
John Stockton (97-98): -1.8
Lebron James (12-13): -6.7
Tim Duncan (12-13): -8.0
Kevin Garnett (07-08): -10.2
Dwyane Wade (12-13): -10.4
Jason Kidd (01-02): -10.9
Dwight Howard (08-09): -17.9
Kevin Garnett (09-10): -24.2


This data really shows just how special Dirk’s 2011 run was.

Kobe was the only player with two top 10 finishes for PIE (player’s impact on game events in the clutch). The caveat being that only two of Jordan’s playoff runs are included so he would of most likely changed up the rankings a bit had the data been available for the other four prior years.

Lebron and Duncan both had two top 10 finishes for Net Rating (offensive rating – defensive rating in the clutch) – again Jordan caveat as stated above.

The Admiral had a surprisingly large impact during that championship run in the clutch.

[Mr. Jabbar]

well, lebron ranks dead last, so your method works

[SouBeachTalents]

Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?

[sundizz]

Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?

That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.

[Rocketswin2013]

Source?

[SouBeachTalents]

That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.

Gotchya. You mind adding others, would definitely like to see Shaq's '00, Duncan's '03, and LeBron's '12 or '13

[sundizz]

Source: http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/
*You'll have to learn how to play with a little bit (click the widget looking thing to filter)

And sure, I can add more. I'm using this as my break for studying so I'll update the OP with more. I'll likely end up just going through it year by year actually (from 96 to 15).

[ImKobe]

the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.

[pastis]

wow, this thread is gonna be marked. for all the dirk haters.

man.....


Dirk....

[SouBeachTalents]

the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.

I think there are some instances of clutch/unclutch play that are random luck, but eventually over a players career a pattern will form. There's no way you could consider the careers of Peyton, A-Rod and Romo as "random luck" after so many seasons of similar results in clutch games & situations

[Spurs5Rings2014]

Thank you, OP, for finally dispelling the myth that Duncan wasn't the best player in the '07 and '14 play offs.

[LeFraud James]

Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.

[TheBigVeto]

Dirk is the most clutch player since Michael Jordan. Fact.

[nzahir]

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/1...-winning-shots
End thread, another shit post by another shit user.
Im only here to enlighten people but you guys just dont understand basketball.

[nzahir]

Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/1...-winning-shots
You have autism