Blog a Bull: "Signing Pau Gasol Was A Mistake"

[SwishSquared]

Pau Gasol was selected as an All Star starter by the fans. This is, honestly, a joke. Pau Gasol is the Bulls fourth best big man. Yes, fourth best. Behind Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and even rookie Nikola Mirotic. The idea that Gasol was somehow one of the best big men in the entire Eastern Conference is ridiculous. At first glance, it's easy to see why Pau has received this recognition. Pau is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, nearly 3 assists, and over 2 blocks in his roughly 35 minutes per game. Those certainly seem like All Star numbers. However, it's pretty likely that no one is putting up emptier stats than Pau Gasol is this season.

Offensively, the Bulls routinely force-feed Gasol isolations on the block, allowing him to post-up while everyone else mostly stands around watching him, not cutting, not moving, nothing, just watching. Pau goes to work down low and if he has a mismatch, he scores with relative ease. Put someone with some defensive skill in the post on Pau, though, and he is almost entirely neutralized. This has happened over and over this season. It happened recently against the Heat in Miami, as Gasol (along with Taj Gibson) was dominated inside by Hassan Whiteside, scoring just 13 points on 16 shots. In the Bulls' last game against the Cavs, with the defensively stout Timofey Mozgov as his primary matchup, Gasol went 4 of 14 from the field and scored just 11 points. In the Bulls' last game against the Washington Wizards' beastly frontcourt Gasol went 4 of 11 from the field and scored just 13 points in 33 minutes. Simply put, too often, Gasol's offense, the place where he actually provides some value, disappears when confronted with a tough matchup. Sure, put Pau on the floor with a depleted Bucks front line and he might drop 46, but against legitimate post defense, Pau does not shine the way a 7 footer with his size and skill should. He gets bullied.

Defensively, Gasol is an absolute trainwreck. Despite his heavy rebound totals, Gasol almost never boxes out anyone. His rebounding totals are primarily the result of his being around the rim for the vast majority of the game and catching whatever misses come off in his immediate vicinity. Pau's gaudy block totals result similarly. Gasol hardly ever leaves the immediate basket area to get out help contain penetration or to properly help rotate. Instead, Gasol hovers near the basket and, due to his height and reach, blocks a few shots here and there at the basket. Sure, there is some value in blocking those shots, but mostly Gasol hurts the defense in the same ways that Carlos Boozer once did (poor rotations, slow feet), without the value that Boozer provided in boxing people out and / or securing defensive rebounds.

The Bulls are still stingy at forcing tough shots, as they rank 3rd in the NBA at opponent effective field goal percentage and they still play defense without fouling. Almost all of their defensive drop off can be traced to the fact that they have fallen to 20th in opponent offensive rebounding rate; in other words, they aren't boxing out on the defensive glass. The rest can be traced to the Bulls being the second worst team in the league at forcing turnovers, falling from their previously middling ranks in that category. I suspect much of this is related to Derrick playing more (he hardly ever gets steals), Joakim not being as frenetic as usual (his steal rate is down from 1.9% last year to 1.2%), and again, Pau replacing Boozer (Carlos had a 1.3% steal rate last year compared to just .5% for Pau).There's also the issue of communication on defense. Say what you will about Boozer's defense, and it was often very bad, but you always heard him out there. When was the last time you heard Pau call out anything defensively? That stuff matters, and I don't think it's a coincidence that so many of the incumbent Bulls have cited a lack of communication as a primary reason for their defensive struggles. All of this is to say that a good percentage of the Bulls drop off defensively this season can be placed on Pau's shoulders.

Looking at ESPN's Real Plus-Minus tells a similar story. Pau is rated worse than Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson & outpaces Joakim Noah only slightly (Pau is +1.04 to Noah's +.69 per 100 possessions), but Noah has been significantly limited by his health all year. The Noah we've seen the last few games as he seems to return to health is a significantly better player than Pau...

....Much of this could be mitigated if Thibodeau would use Gasol as a scorer off the bench, allowing him to dominate the weaker big men of the league on the block (which is where he shines anyway) and start Taj, or better yet, Mirotic. The young Montenegrin has been absolutely buried at the altar of Gasol, despite being easily the Bulls best fit offensively in the starting lineup alongside Noah & Rose. He opens things up so much for the Bulls drivers and he racks up steals at more than triple the rate of Pau, helping to mitigate some of the Bulls defensive issues. It's no surprise that he rates out (by Real +/-) as the Bulls very best big man so far this season. Unfortunately, he's been getting the typical Thibodeau rookie treatment, since the Bulls other big men have gotten mostly healthy. Among 2-man Bulls combinations that have played at least 100 minutes together, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Joakim Noah all have Nikola as their best partner by Net Rating. Mirotic is Rose's second best partner, behind Aaron Brooks. You'll note that those are the Bulls starting players, minus Gasol.

All of this is to say Nikola is a perfect fit alongside the rest of the starting unit. He should be playing with those guys. But Thibodeau won't put him in there, both because he doesn't like to trust rookies, but also because Pau is the type to whine in the media about his minutes and role. See, for example, his public expression that he wanted to close games prior to the season even starting.

Pau Gasol hasn't solved any issues for the Bulls and he has created new ones. The defense has cratered, relatively speaking, largely due to his presence on the floor for 35 minutes a night. The offense is better, but that is only partly related to Pau's presence, as Derrick Rose being back helps, even with his inefficient scoring, and Jimmy Butler played the first part of this season like a rough facsimile of James Harden on offense. There's also the counterfactual of how good the Bulls offense could be if Nikola Mirotic were spacing the floor instead of Pau clogging things up with mediocrely efficient postups.

The most frustrating thing about all of this is how utterly predictable it has all been. To wit, when it was rumored that the Bulls were close to signing Pau, I tweeted the following:...

...None of this is to pat myself on the back for being so prescient. If anything, it's the opposite. It's to point out how obvious these things should have been to a front office intent on trying to build a championship caliber team. Pau Gasol is and was fool's gold and a paper tiger of an All-Star. The sooner the Bulls and Thibodeau figure that out and ride with Taj and Mirotic, the better. If the Bulls had signed wing help and given their incumbent big men & Niko minutes, I believe they would be significantly better off right now and better positioned to win deep into the postseason.

(Writing this made me sad, because I do, genuinely, love Pau the person. He's just doing significant harm to my favorite basketball team is all.)

http://www.blogabull.com/2015/1/31/7...-was-a-mistake

What say you ISH? I bolded the parts I found most interesting. Pretty strong #HotSportsTake imo.

[raprap]

Interesting. Never saw enough Bulls game to comment, looking forward to Bulls fans opinion to this.

[SamuraiSWISH]

Besides a crazy 40 plus point performance. The blog is right. He grabs boards but he's weak defensively, and he's really old. Being on the floor with Noah has also affected his capabilities too. I'd prefer Gasol off the bench. I would've preferred we got someone else completely. Another impulse buy like Boozer in 2010 albeit better. Hold off until we get something we want or truly need. Another younger playmaker off the dribble.

Butler has tried very hard to do this while also being a contract year ... but his defense has suffered. As of now he's breaking down in January due to the superstar pressure of having to perform greatly on offense and defense every night, every possession. Then you have meat head Chicago fans who think he deserved star caliber money. Just like with Deng. Being a workhorse doesn't mean you're a superstar. Star players bring it every night, don't wear down mid season due to pressure or expectations, raise their play against higher competition in the playoffs. And continue to play that good and consistent year after year even when teams or defenses are geared up as well as prepared to play you.

To make matters worse is Thibs. Over playing guys. Burning guys out in the regular season. No wonder work hard blue collar meat head Chicago fans love him so much. They identify with him. He's not as great as he's hyped up to be ... head coach wise. Our players are now tuning him out.

[Meticode]

Well something's obviously changed since the last 4-5 seasons. The Bulls defense is mediocre compared to what it's been every season over Thibs. While the Bulls are doing better offensively, they have taken 2 steps backwards defensively.

[SamuraiSWISH]

Not only that but it was disrespectful to Taj ... A guy who earned and truly deserved to finally be a starting PF this season once we shredded the dead weight of Carlos Boozer. Gibson plays great with Noah. We didn't need anymore front court help. I'd like to see Mirotic out there more developing and stretching the floor ala a young Kukoc without the ball handling abilities.

[navy]

Just bring Pau of the bench. He was suppose to help, not take over the team at 34.

[Cocaine80s]

dellevedova + Marion for Pau

[SamuraiSWISH]

dellevedova + Marion for Pau

Shump + Thompson for Gasol, and it's a deal.

[Meticode]

Shump + Thompson for Gasol, and it's a deal.

This makes zero sense for the Cavs. I wouldn't be trading any major pieces right now at all for the Cavs. And I wouldn't trade for anything but a capable backup PG either and that's with the players riding the pine.

[SamuraiSWISH]

This makes zero sense for the Cavs. I wouldn't be trading any major pieces right now at all for the Cavs. And I wouldn't trade for anything but a capable backup PG either and that's with the players riding the pine.

Did I say it makes sense? Did the guy whose trade offer I replied to make sense? I'm talking about how both ideas sound absurd. Those are the players I'd want from Cleveland to be honest. Obviously Bulls wouldn't be able to get LeBron, Kyrie, or Love.

[masonanddixon]

This is beyond retarded.

Bulls would be a just barely above 500 team with Gibson starting.

[Bosnian Sajo]

18/12 = empty stats on a winning team? I mean I'd understand the argument if he was averaging those numbers on a losing team, but the Bulls are plus .600 team

[gts]

wow.. Bulls fans sure quick to end the honeymoon

[kuniva_dAMiGhTy]

Yikes. What happened to Bulls fans complaining about Laker fans not wanting Pau? Crazy what a few bad games will do.

[josh99]

Interesting. Never saw enough Bulls game to comment, looking forward to Bulls fans opinion to this.

+1.

His defense might not be good but he's definitely not as bad on offense as the articles makes him out to be. Also its not his fault if he gets lots of iso posts run for him, it's the coach's job to choose what plays to run.