Comparing the 5 Greatest Centers Ever

[kshutts1]

I can't wait until I have time to read all of this thread.

Nothing I like more than math nerds arguing. (surprising, that's not sarcasm)

[Psileas]

Regular season PPG -- Playoffs PPG
37.6 -- 33.2 (-4.4)
38.4 -- 37.0 (-1.4)
50.4 -- 35/0 (-15.4)
44.8 -- N/A
36.9 -- 34.7 (-2.2)
34.7 -- 29.3 (-5.4)
33.8 -- 28.0 (-5.8)
24.7 -- 21.7 (-3.0)
24.3 -- 23.7 (-0.6)
20.5 -- 13.9 (-6.6)
27.3 -- 22.1 (-5.2)
20.7 -- 18.3 (-2.5)
14.8 -- 14.7 (-0.1)
13.2 -- 10.4 (-2.8)

Career Regular season PPG -- Career Playoffs PPG
30.1 -- 22.5 (-7.6)

Of course, I'd done this lots of years ago - actually, when I first got his full stats and I immediately realized how bogus this "-7.6" was. He only had a single playoff season when he fell by at least that much and only another season when he even came close to this number. Having missed the playoffs in his 2nd most prolific season enhanced this (not so) "paradox", since, if we remove that season, we're talking about 28.8 ppg. Add this to the unequal number of games he played in his high scoring vs his non high scoring seasons and only then does -7.6 make sense.

[fpliii]

The argument in the quoted thread is why assists PER GAME are not a quality standard measure across eras.

Assist PERCENTAGE 100% is a quality measurement. Every other player in that era dealt with the same "difficulty" getting an assist relative to today. It's a percentage. It works.

Right, but assist percentage isn't the percentage of team assists for which a player's responsible. Rather, it's the percent of total made field goals on which that guy was determined to have assisted. Total assists are in the numerator of AST% so if they're the only number changing, it has a direct impact on the stat. Suppose that there's a 10% increase due to the change: AST% jumps to literally 110%.

If you're comparing AST% in the same season, that's fine. But comparing guys on the basis of that metric 30 years apart when one player operated before the change and one after causes problems.

[kshutts1]

Right, but assist percentage isn't the percentage of team assists for which a player's responsible. Rather, it's the percent of total made field goals on which that guy was determined to have assisted. Total assists are in the numerator of AST% so if they're the only number changing, it has a direct impact on the stat. Suppose that there's a 10% increase due to the change: AST% jumps to literally 110%.

If you're comparing AST% in the same season, that's fine. But comparing guys on the basis of that metric 30 years apart when one player operated before the change and one after causes problems.

Thanks for shedding light. I figured assist% was percentage of one's teams assists one had. My way makes more sense.

[fpliii]

Actually, the 0.44 doesn't just account for and-1's. It accounts for free throws that end a possesion. That means and-1 free throws, the second free-throw on a 2pt shot foul and the thrid three-throw on the 3pt shot foul, along with technical and unsportsmanlike free throws. It means that only 44 percent of all free-throws taken in the league end a possesion.

Correct. I just singled out and-1's because for the guys in this thread (all centers) technical and unsportsmanlike FTs are not relevant (since centers aren't taking those) as are 3PA fouls, so and-1's are for the most part responsible for the deviation from 0.5 (which is what you'd have if only two shot FTs are counted). That's operating under today's rules though, so it's not 100% accurate.

For seasons up to and including 80-81, if either FTA is missed in a shooting foul, players got an extra penalty FTA. Same after and-1's. These three-to-make-two and two-to-make-one fouls really make the data difficult, since the extra missed FTA was still recorded. In this case the 0.44 might be higher (artificially lowering TS% for a guy attempting a lot of free throws who is exceptionally poor at shooting them, like a Wilt, since he's being credited as using more possessions than he did, increasing the denominator).

EDIT: In my last sentence, just to clarify, I meant to say that "In this case the 0.44 might be higher than it should be."

[LAZERUSS]

Of course, I'd done this lots of years ago - actually, when I first got his full stats and I immediately realized how bogus this "-7.6" was. He only had a single playoff season when he fell by at least that much and only another season when he even came close to this number. Having missed the playoffs in his 2nd most prolific season enhanced this (not so) "paradox", since, if we remove that season, we're talking about 28.8 ppg. Add this to the unequal number of games he played in his high scoring vs his non high scoring seasons and only then does -7.6 make sense.

The "Wilt-bashers" would NEVER go this indepth...either because they don't want to state what this clearly shows...or because they are just plain ignorant.

[LAZERUSS]

Of course, I'd done this lots of years ago - actually, when I first got his full stats and I immediately realized how bogus this "-7.6" was. He only had a single playoff season when he fell by at least that much and only another season when he even came close to this number. Having missed the playoffs in his 2nd most prolific season enhanced this (not so) "paradox", since, if we remove that season, we're talking about 28.8 ppg. Add this to the unequal number of games he played in his high scoring vs his non high scoring seasons and only then does -7.6 make sense.

And what is truly laughable in all of this is ...

How many other players in NBA history, have posted career playoff numbers of 22.5 ppg, 24.5 rpg, .522 FG% (in post-seasons that averaged .430 in that span)? And those numbers cover 160 post-season games, too. Nor do they reflect just how dominant he was against his OPPOSING centers in his 29 playoff series, either.

But, because it was WILT...well, the guy "choked."

[Deuce Bigalow]

In the Finals? I think you'd have to add the numbers up for all players on both teams.

Ok I will do the Finals. But for SGs, Jerry West is missing TRB% from most of his career, and of course was never top 10 in a season in TRB% so I can't get the numbers from your thread.

[Deuce Bigalow]

And what is truly laughable in all of this is ...

How many other players in NBA history, have posted career playoff numbers of 22.5 ppg, 24.5 rpg, .522 FG% (in post-seasons that averaged .430 in that span)? And those numbers cover 160 post-season games, too. Nor do they reflect just how dominant he was against his OPPOSING centers in his 29 playoff series, either.

But, because it was WILT...well, the guy "choked."

NBA Playoffs

[Color=green]Bill Russell[/color] - 16.2 PPG, 20.9 TRB%, 13.3 AST%, 47.4 TS%

[Color=blue]Wilt Chamberlain[/color] - 22.5 PPG, 21.9 TRB%, 12.9 AST%, 52.4 TS%

[Color=purple]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar[/color] - 24.3 PPG, 14.6 TRB%, 13.2 AST%, 57.1 TS%

[Color=red]Hakeem Olajuwon[/color] - 25.9 PPG, 16.0 TRB%, 15.6 AST%, 56.9 TS%

[Color=gold]Shaquille O'Neal[/color] - 24.3 PPG, 18.0 TRB%, 14.7 AST%, 56.5 TS%

NBA Finals

[Color=green]Bill Russell[/color] - 16.4 PPG, 53.2 TS%

[Color=blue]Wilt Chamberlain[/color] - 18.6 PPG, 52.8 TS%

[Color=purple]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar[/color] - 23.5 PPG, 55.6 TS%

[Color=red]Hakeem Olajuwon[/color] - 28.0 PPG, 53.4 TS%

[Color=gold]Shaquille O'Neal[/color] - 28.8 PPG, 59.0 TS%

I will add the TRB% in their Finals performances soon. But as you can clearly see, other centers in history have outscored, shot more efficiently, and had a higher AST% than Wilt in the Playoffs. This is still the case even when players like Kareem, Shaq, and Hakeem all kept on playing well past their primes and decreased their career averages. Wilt was he better postseason rebounder than every other center in history, at least he has that.

[riseagainst]

Explain this to me first...




Secondly...how about this...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123855027541776617.html



Finally...Hakeem's '95 NBA averaged 1916 assists per team, or 23.4 apg per team. Chamberlain's '67 NBA averaged 1817 assists per team (in one less game) for an average of 22.4 apg, per team. Yet Wilt's '67 NBA averaged 117.4 ppg, while Hakeem's '95 NBA averaged 101.4 ppg. CLEARLY something changed in the way assists were given out in the near 30 years time frame.

Now I ask you...how is AST% NOT flawed?

AST% is the percentage of assists that player contributes while he is on the floor. Who's to say that Wilt's teammates didn't get all their assists while Wilt's on the floor? I mean he practically played 48 minutes a game every game.

[fpliii]

Ok I will do the Finals. But for SGs, Jerry West is missing TRB% from most of his career, and of course was never top 10 in a season in TRB% so I can't get the numbers from your thread.

I'll post the Excel links when I get home.

AST% is the percentage of assists that player contributes while he is on the floor. Who's to say that Wilt's teammates didn't get all their assists while Wilt's on the floor? I mean he practically played 48 minutes a game every game.

False, AST% is the percentage of made shots on which a player assisted while on the floor (see the definition above, from the basketball-reference.com glossary). It's independent of his teammates' assists as long as FGM is constant.

[fpliii]

Here are the links:

Regular Seasons: http://www2.zippyshare.com/v/2729139/file.html

Playoffs: http://www2.zippyshare.com/v/41530911/file.html

Some of the team names are mislabeled in later seasons for whatever reason, I'll fix them when I have a chance.

[LAZERUSS]

NBA Playoffs

[Color=green]Bill Russell[/color] - 16.2 PPG, 20.9 TRB%, 13.3 AST%, 47.4 TS%

[Color=blue]Wilt Chamberlain[/color] - 22.5 PPG, 21.9 TRB%, 12.9 AST%, 52.4 TS%

[Color=purple]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar[/color] - 24.3 PPG, 14.6 TRB%, 13.2 AST%, 57.1 TS%

[Color=red]Hakeem Olajuwon[/color] - 25.9 PPG, 16.0 TRB%, 15.6 AST%, 56.9 TS%

[Color=gold]Shaquille O'Neal[/color] - 24.3 PPG, 18.0 TRB%, 14.7 AST%, 56.5 TS%

NBA Finals

[Color=green]Bill Russell[/color] - 16.4 PPG, 53.2 TS%

[Color=blue]Wilt Chamberlain[/color] - 18.6 PPG, 52.8 TS%

[Color=purple]Kareem Abdul-Jabbar[/color] - 23.5 PPG, 55.6 TS%

[Color=red]Hakeem Olajuwon[/color] - 28.0 PPG, 53.4 TS%

[Color=gold]Shaquille O'Neal[/color] - 28.8 PPG, 59.0 TS%

I will add the TRB% in their Finals performances soon. But as you can clearly see, other centers in history have outscored, shot more efficiently, and had a higher AST% than Wilt in the Playoffs. This is still the case even when players like Kareem, Shaq, and Hakeem all kept on playing well past their primes and decreased their career averages. Wilt was he better postseason rebounder than every other center in history, at least he has that.

Duece, these numbers are almsot meaningless without proper CONTEXT.

How about showing their TS% compared to a), the league average, and b) against their peers.

For example, we KNOW that Shaq not only blew away the post-season league average in TS% in his '95 Finals against Hakeem, but that he held Hakeem way below it. THAT has relevancy.

You already admitted Chamberlain was the greatest rebounder of the group, but how about posting his TRB% against his opposing centers, as well. He was just murdering Russell in some of their post-season h2h series.

[Deuce Bigalow]

Calculated their Finals TRB%. Its on the OP now.

NBA Finals

Russell - 21.43 TRB%
Wilt - 22.04 TRB%
Kareem- 12.43 TRB%
Hakeem- 13.98 TRB%
Shaq- 18.34 TRB%

Edit: Updated

[CavaliersFTW]

Calculated their Finals TRB%. Its on the OP now.

NBA Finals

Russell - 19.55 TRB%
Wilt - 22.04 TRB%
Kareem- 12.61 TRB%
Hakeem- 13.98 TRB%
Shaq- 18.34 TRB%

Wilt GOAT Finals rebounder