Observations of Lebron's game

[3ball]

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[COLOR="Blue"]The stats prove Lebron isn't capable of good efficiency at high shot volume[/COLOR]

We didn't need the 2015 playoffs to prove Lebron's inability to shoot well at high volume - the NBA's player-tracking stats show that Lebron is horrible at the additional midrange required of high volume shooting.

27 shot attempts per game (Lebron's average in 2015 Playoffs) cannot be achieved on all 3-and-D - good midrange is needed to shoot well at this volume.. Accordingly, Lebron's career 37% midrange efficiency precludes him from ever shooting well at very high volumes - this is a statistical fact.

Lebron's poor efficiency at high volume dooms his chances of winning a CHAMPIONSHIP while shooting high volume - he simply isn't capable of winning a ring while high shooting volume.


[COLOR="Blue"]Lebron's poor efficiency at high volumes mean he doesn't require a double-team[/COLOR]

He hasn't been double-teamed for the last 3 Finals, most obviously in 2015.. There's no danger in letting Lebron shoot 39% at 33 fga, so there was no need to take the ball out of his hands to prevent the high volume in the 2015 Finals.. Lebron's inability to have good efficiency at high volume allowed the Warriors to permit his secluded 1-on-1 clearouts all series long - it was part of their exploitative strategy.. The best option for ANY defense is to allow low percentage shots over and over..

This specific dynamic where [COLOR="Navy"]Lebron UN-complicates the opponent's defensive strategy[/COLOR] by not commanding a double-team, puts him outside of the top 15 all-time.. His inability to command a double team (due to his poor midrange and resulting inability to shoot well at high volumes) is a horrible indictment on his game compared to his peers.

Also, no one has ever gotten such secluded clearouts, probably in history, than what Lebron got in 2015 Finals.. So there's no excuse for Lebron's 39% shooting (other than him not being capable of good efficiency at high volume).


[COLOR="Blue"]36 ppg on 39% is Lebron's absolute max capability at high shot volume[/COLOR]

The lack of double-teaming in the 2015 Finals provided Lebron with [COLOR="indigo"]optimal conditions[/COLOR] to shoot the best percentage possible at the higher volume - this turned out to be 39%.. 39% is Lebron's ceiling at higher shot volume.. Again, this would never be good enough to win a championship - when MJ averaged 41/9/6/51% in 1993, it was BARELY enough for the Bulls to win because remarkably, both teams averaged exactly 106.7 ppg and 113.0 ORtg in those Finals.


[COLOR="Blue"]Lebron's lack of midrange ability didn't just prevent him from good efficiency at high volumes and subsequent double-teams, but it also prevents him from being as good in the 80's, when midrange was the primary option remaining in the absence of the 3-pointers necessary to make screen-roll/drive-and-kick mathematically worthwhile.[/COLOR]

Without teammates spreading the floor for him and making drive-and-kick the force it is today, Lebron would have to score from the mid-range like everyone else in the 80's - since he sucks at mid-range, we know for a fact he would be a lesser player back then.


[COLOR="Blue"]Faster pace wouldn't help Lebron in the 80's because the stats show that pace ALWAYS slows down in the playoffs, regardless of era[/COLOR]

Pace was 94.0 in both the 1988 and 1989 playoffs, which is lower than the 2015 playoffs (94.4).. Playoff pace was often MUCH lower, like in the mid-90's - i.e. pace was 87.4 in the 1996 playoffs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...all_misc_stats
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...all_misc_stats


[COLOR="Blue"]Lebron's point-guard-style and ball-dominance turns a normally high-assisted position (sf) into a low-assisted position, thus reducing the playmaking capacity and strategic options of his teams compared to MJ's[/COLOR]

MJ was a highly-assisted, OFF-BALL player, which maximized the playmaking capacity of the team, since teammates have more opportunity to throw him an assist.. Otoh, Lebron's low-assisted, ball-dominant style reduces the playmaking capacity of the team and his team's strategic options (Lebron MUST dominate the ball) - this monopolizing, ball-dominant style craters the stats of good teammates (Bosh, Love, Wade)... Since Lebron's teammates can't play to capacity alongside his ball-dominance, the TEAM can't play to capacity, and routinely underachieves (they lost as the 1 seed from 2009-2011... and they were blown away despite having at least equal talent in 2014).

Otoh, MJ's quick-decision, off-ball game fit seamlessly alongside any teammate, so guys like Pippen, Kukoc and Grant played at FULL capacity alongside MJ - i.e. Pippen averaged 21/8/7 in 1992, which is the same as the 22/9/6 he averaged in 1994 without MJ.. Ditto for Grant - he got 14/10 in 1992, which is the same as 15/10 he got in 1994.. When MJ came back for a full season in 1996, his off-ball game allowed him to simply add his league-leading scoring right on top of what was already there, without diminishing anything - that's the main reason the Bulls went from 2nd Round team back to 3-peat status (which is a massive jump, the GOAT impact on a team). Since MJ's teammates played to capacity alongside MJ's quick decision, off-ball game, the TEAM played to capacity, and never underachieved - Jordan NEVER lost to a team with equal or worse talent.


[COLOR="Blue"]Lebron's suboptimal style prevents his team from playing an optimal brand of basketball (equal-opportunity).. Since Lebron's teams can't play an optimal brand of basketball, that leaves them susceptible to getting upset by less talented teams who CAN play a superior brand of basketball to overcome the talent factor.[/COLOR]

Lebron was upset by equal or less talented teams in 2009 ECSF, 2011 Finals, and 2014 Finals - in those series, Lebron's opponent overcame a stalemate or disdavantage in talent by playing a vastly superior brand of basketball.. This never happened to MJ's teams - his teams played an optimal, equal opportunity brand of basketball, so less-talented opponents couldn't upset MJ's teams by playing a superior brand of basketball.. MJ's teams were never upset or underachieved - he simply never lost to a team with equal or worse talent in playoffs.


[COLOR="Blue"]When Lebron's teams lose to teams of equal or lesser talent, his stats are "empty", since it was his suboptimal style that allows opponents the opportunity to play a better brand of basketball[/COLOR]

Lebron's style promoted bad chemistry with Wade.. Their well-publicized on-off stats showed the Heat were better when they were not on the floor together - suboptimal chemistry and brand of basketball between the two stars left the team open to being upset by equal or less-talented teams playing a better brand of basketball.. Anytime this happened, Lebron's stats were "empty", since his suboptimal style created the opportunity for the opponent to play a better style and overcome any talent factor.

Given his previous upsets in 2009 and 2011, we can now see that Ray allen's walk-off in 2013 merely interrupted a trend where opposing teams play a superior brand of basketball and render lebron's stats empty - they're empty whether he takes a passive 17 fga on all 3-and-D to protect efficiency (2014 Finals), or whether he doubles the fga to 34, but the additional isolations and midrange required of high volume shooting tanks his efficiency (2015 Finals).

Further evidence of suboptimal chemistry and brand of basketball, is that Bosh and Wade's stats were way down alongside Lebron.. Regardless of all these issues, the team still went 2/4 due to sheer talent - but the times they lost, their chemistry and brand of basketball was far worse than their opponent (dallas, spurs), rendering Lebron's stats empty.. The lesser brand of basketball falls primarily on Lebron's shoulders - as the franchise player, he's most responsible for the brand of basketball his teams are capable of.


[COLOR="Blue"]Lebron is only elite as the primary ballhandler - so he can't get elite stats in an equal opportunity offense, since that requires elite ability in ALL areas, including primary ballhandler, off-ball, midrange, post and isolations.[/COLOR]

If Lebron played for the Spurs, he wouldn't be able to get elite stats unless Popovich abandoned his equal opportunity offense and let Lebron dominate the ball - then the Spurs would come up short and you guys would be complaining how Patty Mills and Boris Diaw are garbage..

It's a shame, because if Lebron could average 33/6/6 in an equal opportunity offense like the Spurs, he'd never lose in the Finals just like MJ... But that's the whole point - he can't get elite stats in an equal opportunity offense, because he's only elite as the primary ballhandler.

Primary ballhandler is the most stat-padding position on the floor... I guess that's why MJ's stats were so insane the one time he was a primary ballhandler consistently (30/9/11 in 24 games at point guard, including a stretch of 10 triple doubles in 11 games).. That's better than Lebron has ever done in an entire career as primary ballhandler.

MJ was better at Lebron's bread and butter (primary ballhandler) and obviously he was FAR better off-ball, isolations, midrange and post.. This superior versatility as shown by elite ability in all areas is why MJ could get 33/6/6 in an equal opportunity offense, or 41/9/6/51 on high volume (33 fga).. Meanwhile, Lebron can't do either of these things (get elite stats in an equal opportunity offense or have good efficiency at high volume).
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[90sgoat]

Hey 3Ball,

I signed up just to say we're millions of lurkers watching around the world who appreciate the consistent smackdowns of these dumbass kids and their hero Bran.

[StrongLurk]

Hey 3Ball,

I signed up just to say we're millions of lurkers watching around the world who appreciate the consistent smackdowns of these dumbass kids and their hero Bran.

3ball created an alt and is talking to himself

[Marchesk]

3ball created an alt and is talking to himself

Isn't that the case for half these threads? There's simply no way you can still get mileage off Kobe threads without a bunch of alts, right? Tell that's so.

[riseagainst]

Hey 3Ball,

I signed up just to say we're millions of lurkers watching around the world who appreciate the consistent smackdowns of these dumbass kids and their hero Bran.

[3ball]

I'm not 90sgoat.. The mods can probably verify that pretty easily.

[ralph_i_el]

LeBron age 30: 2/6 in the finals
MJ age 30: 3/3 in the finals

MJ age 22: swept twice in the first round
LeBron age 22: lost in 2nd round, swept in finals

but yeah, bron really can't shoot. Check his midrange stats on bball ref. It's really ugly

[90sgoat]

I'm not 90sgoat.. The mods can probably verify that pretty easily.

Damn right bro.

[DonDadda59]

LeBron age 30: 2/6 in the finals
MJ age 30: 3/3 in the finals

Bron had a 3 year head start while playing in the worst conference in NBA History (post merger). Kobe was 3/3 in the finals by age 23, 5/7 by 30. Means jack shit.

MJ age 22: swept twice in the first round
LeBron age 22: lost in 2nd round, swept in finals

Jordan was swept twice by Larry Bird's Celtics, a GOAT team candidate, in an Eastern Conference that was ultra strong. Even the GOAT putting up 44/6/6/2 (51% FG) and dropping a still record 63 points wasn't enough.

Bron's Cavs wouldn't have gotten a single win in those circumstances either. Notice how he also got swept the moment he saw a team that was good but nowhere near the realm of those Celtics squads.

[ralph_i_el]

Bron had a 3 year head start while playing in the worst conference in NBA History (post merger). Kobe was 3/3 in the finals by age 23, 5/7 by 30. Means jack shit.



Jordan was swept twice by Larry Bird's Celtics, a GOAT team candidate, in an Eastern Conference that was ultra strong. Even the GOAT putting up 44/6/6/2 (51% FG) and dropping a still record 63 points wasn't enough.

Bron's Cavs wouldn't have gotten a single win in those circumstances either. Notice how he also got swept the moment he saw a team that was good but nowhere near the realm of those Celtics squads.

Context only matters when it's in MJ's favor I guess.
As soon as LeBron got support as good as any of MJ's championship teams, he went 2/3.

After Bird's Celtics dropped off, how good was the East of MJ's championship period? I was just a kid, so I don't really know as much about the teams that didn't win rings. I've heard people say the 90's east was pretty weak outside of the Bulls and Pistons.

[DonDadda59]

Context only matters when it's in MJ's favor I guess.
As soon as LeBron got support as good as any of MJ's championship teams, he went 2/3.

After Bird's Celtics dropped off, how good was the East of MJ's championship period? I was just a kid, so I don't really know as much about the teams that didn't win rings. I've heard people say the 90's east was pretty weak outside of the Bulls and Pistons.

Then you've been listening to a bunch of idiots.

The Pistons were irrelevant after '91.

90s East- Jordan's Bulls, Shaq's Magic, Ewing's Knicks, Daugherty/Price's Cavs, Miller's Pacers, Zo/Hardaway's Heat, Even the Hornets and the Hawks strung together a few consecutive 50+ win seasons.

And overall, the early 90s had the most parity between the conferences. By the mid-late 90s, the East was stacked. In '96-'97 alone, the East had 6 50-win teams, 2 of those winning 60.



The 80s was all about the stacked East while the West was extremely top heavy (Lakers obviously) but weak overall. And no one needs to go into how much of a joke the East has been since the 00s began, especially in recent years.

[Trollsmasher]

what's this meme with Bran not being double teamed in the Finals?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DinqVE0yp4M

[sdot_thadon]

Context only matters when it's in MJ's favor I guess.
As soon as LeBron got support as good as any of MJ's championship teams, he went 2/3.

After Bird's Celtics dropped off, how good was the East of MJ's championship period? I was just a kid, so I don't really know as much about the teams that didn't win rings. I've heard people say the 90's east was pretty weak outside of the Bulls and Pistons.

It probably was better than the recent east but don't let anyone tell you it was some sort of hard era, it wasnt.

[3ball]

but don't let anyone tell you it was some sort of hard era, it wasnt.

MJ defeated Shaq/Penny, while Lebron only needed to beat Hibbert/George - that's a massive drop-off.

It's common knowledge that MJ faced the far superior competition:






MJ's style was more effective.. First of all, he had good efficiency at high shot volume, since his efficiency was elite at the additional 1-on-1 and midrange required of high volume shooters. Otoh, we saw Lebron's 1-on-1 fail in the 2015 Finals because he COULDN'T shoot a good percentage at high volume - he's simply bad at the additional 1-on-1 and midrange required of high volume shooters - this is statistical fact.

In addition to shooting well at high volume, MJ's style also succeeded because his buckets usually came AFTER running off-ball, so he didn't use live-dribbles as often - his lack of ball-dominance allowed the Bulls to run an equal-opportunity offense (triangle) and therefore the best brand of basketball.. This is another stark contrast from today's so-called best player - Lebron's ball-dominance prevents his teams from running equal-opportunity offenses and the best brand of basketball, which allows equal or less-talented opponents to pull upsets by playing a better brand of basketball (2009, 2011, 2014).

Also, there's a 3rd reason why MJ's style ended up working for the Bulls - MJ's off-ball style of play increased the APG and assist percentage of teammates like Pippen, while Lebron's ball-dominance craters the APG and assist % of his teammates (Wade, Love, Bosh, Kyrie, Mo Williams).. With Lebron's style decreasing the assists of teammates, it's no surprise that all his TEAMS have lower assist frequency.

[3ball]

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[COLOR="Red"]The win-totals of teams MJ played during his 24 game stretch at PG:
[/COLOR]

Seattle: 47
Indiana: 28
Cleveland: 57
New York: 52
Indiana: 28
Lakers: 57
Phoenix: 55
Portland: 39
Seattle: 47
Warriors: 43
Bucks: 49
Cleveland: 57
New Jersey: 26
Charlotte: 20
Detroit: 63
Detroit: 63
Atlanta: 52
Indiana: 28
New Jersey: 26
Cleveland: 57
New York: 52
Washington: 40
Washington: 40
Cleveland: 57
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[COLOR="Red"]45.1 wins[/COLOR]
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