View Single Post
Old 04-10-2013, 10:31 PM   #145
DMAVS41
NBA Legend
 
DMAVS41's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 16,215
Default Re: Do people really believe KD is only a good scorer because of his free throws?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaqAttack3234
I watch Melo and Durant more than I watched Martin so it's difficult to make a completely fair comparison, but I do know that Martin for years has been known as one of the most notorious floppers. On his mid-range shots, he constantly leans his body in trying to draw fouls, is quite thin which helps sell contact as well and has that awkward shot.

I don't think players like that often deserve all of their free throws either, btw.



Except we have no idea how much being in the penalty has added to either of their numbers. Watching the games, I suspect Durant draws more fouls that way, but as I said, Melo with his typical rest is playing at the end of all 4 quarters. Durant gets his rests the last few minutes of the 1st and 3rd, taking out some situations where his opponent would more likely be in the penalty.

8.4 would be on the high side, yes.

You still haven't explained why Durant's OWN FTA have jumped almost 2 per game from 7.6 to 9.4.



I think Harden does get more credit than he should for his flops. I said that before. So I never said he deserves all the FTA he gets either. And as I said, he plays on the fastest paced team in the league and transition/semi-transition opportunities often result in fouls. Melo doesn't get many of these since the Knicks don't run, and when they are in transition, often look for open 3s.

It's not just the number with Durant either. Again, I see him get calls with little to no contact, pretty much if he twists his body awkwardly and misses a shot, hell, sometimes when he makes it. While I see Melo often go up strong, get contact and no call. Calls that Durant will literally get almost every time.

There's no question in my mind just from watching them play. I don't believe in league conspiracies, I think it may have more to do with Melo's reputation in addition to the refs rewarding Durant too much for his own flopping, combined with his weaker frame and just how unusual he looks with his length, especially when his shot is contested.


I understand all that and I don't think really any of your post refutes what I'm saying. In fact, I agree with a lot of it. Our difference is essentially that you don't think Durant deserves it...while I think he has a skill/ability that gets him to the line more often. Really, you do to, you just don't like it.

Durant has jumped up his free throws this year because he's trying to get to the line more. It's obvious watching him play. He's cut down on long jumpers and threes....he's taking 1 less three and 1 less long jumper per game. So his fga are really the same in terms of your fga vs fta rate theory. He's just removed two bad shots a game. But the main thing is that he's trying to get to the line more. That is the difference between Harden/Durant and Melo/Kobe...the first pairing plays to get fouled more often. I think we can all agree on that...and it's something that Durant, at least imo, has been trying to do all year to become more efficient...and he has. So I don't think it's crazy to see a player go to the line roughly 1 more time per game when said player is trying to do that.

I didn't say I could prove anything. I said that logic leads you to a few things;

Minutes evened up takes Melo up .3 fta per game
The bonus thing has some impact. We don't know how much, but it definitely matters that the Thunder spend more time in the bonus and shoot 1.5 more free throws per qtr....
Techs matter. Who knows how much, but even if it were just 20 or 25 extra a year...that makes up .3 per game roughly

So, my point, is that it's a marginal difference...which you claimed otherwise solely based on fga. That was my beef. Even if you conservatively take the above into account. You are going from a 1.8 difference to 1.0 difference per game...and that has nothing to do with the players...just situations.

Then you said that Durant was better at drawing fouls. That is why I asked how much better. Because if he's 20 percent better...that could easily lead to an extra free throw or two a game.

So if you put them in similar team situations and you'd see roughly a 1 free throw difference per game...and Durant is better. I don't see the big deal. And that is just Melo. Kobe shoots 2 less shots per game than melo...so the margins are even smaller on that comparison.

If you went solely by fga...then Durant would be shooting at a much higher rate, but that metric is merely one of many factors and you treated it as the only one...or at least the main one. And the evidence just doesn't show that. Just like shots at the rim...they matter, but not nearly as much as you say given the evidence.

How is 8.4 still excessive? That would mean Durant goes to the line .4 more times a game than Melo. If you admit Durant is better at getting to the line...I don't see how a mere .8 difference on free throws is that big of a deal.

But honestly...the whole fga thing skewed the debate.

Here is the simple truth that honestly doesn't need much context. In the same number of minutes played per game. Durant shoots about 1.5 more free throws per game. Which is exactly within the normal range for a player you claim is better at getting to the line and, in my opinion, plays to get to the line more than Melo does.

Factor in things like techs and the bonus...and you shrink the number further.

Now, if you don't think Durant is better at getting to the line...then you would have more of reason to take your position. But it seemed to me that you agreed he was and just thought he got there too often based on a fga vs fta rate that is inherently flawed and missing way too much to solely go by.

And I never said Durant doesn't get the benefit of some calls for his frame and all the things you said. All of those things go into making him better at getting to the line. He uses them to his advantage. That is like saying Lebron dunks so often because of his size and strength...well...yes...he uses what he has to his advantage. Durant is tall, long, and skinny...and doesn't absorb contact the same way Melo does. And he combines all of that with selling calls more often and better.

So I'm stuck still being confused. Said player plays more minutes, shoots more techs, his team is in the bonus more often, tries to get to the line more often, and is better at selling calls...and it is unreasonable for said player to take roughly .9 more trips to the line per game?

I don't see the big deal. You watch any Thunder or Knicks game....and you are going to see Durant on the court 1.5 more minutes per game...and watch him take 1.8 more free throws per game. Which is going to the line .9 more times per game on average. That just isn't a big enough gap to warrant the outrage. Remove the extra free throws and all you would see is Durant taking an extra shot or two a game. His ppg would stay the same and his fg% might drop from like 50.6 to like 50.3. So I just don't see the issue. The only time this really would be a problem would be if you thought Durant should only be shooting like 6 free throws a game. But you think he should be shooting, i'm assuming, around 8 a game.

And that was the point of this thread. Is Durant only a good scorer because of his fta. If Durant and Melo shot the same percentage from the line, Durant would be getting 1.6 more ppg than Melo from the line.

Last edited by DMAVS41 : 04-10-2013 at 10:46 PM.
DMAVS41 is offline   Reply With Quote