Originally Posted by tontoz
Desired result? They scored 24 points on 20 possessions. The team with the 8-20 3 point shooter will always get AT LEAST 24 points and possibly more.
In basketball the desired result is to score as many points as possible.
Why? Because of extra offensive rebounds? Well for those 20 plays, the 12/20 player's teams can also get offensive rebounds in the 8 plays they missed.
Lets boil it down to the 12 plays, where the one that goes 12/20 on 2s hits all of them and the other that goes 8/20 from 3 hits 3s on 8 possession but misses 4. You're right, its possible that the team with the 4 misses can get an offensive rebound. But defensive rebounds are usually at least twice as more likely, and on top of that, even if an offensive rebound is obtained, it doesn't guarantee a point.
For fractional simplicity sakes, lets say instead of 4 more misses its 12 more misses, and on average a 3rd of them are offensive rebounds while the rest are defensive rebounds, and lets say in each situation they convert points on 50% of them. One team would get 4 offensive rebounds, and then 4 points as a result, while the other team would get 8 defensive rebounds and 8 points as a result. Thats a 4 point net negative. On the other hand, take the other situation where instead of 12 missed threes (converted from 4), its 12 made twos, and the opposing team converts on 50% of the following possessions (which is very generous because its unlikely they would convert at the same rate with no transition opportunities). That would be 24 points vs. 12 points, a 12 point net positive. Put them together and its a 16 point difference.
Lets say a team shoots 100 2s and no other shots on 60% in one game, and then shoots 100 3s and no other shots on 40% in the next game. They score 120 points in each game, but what game do you think they gave up more points in?
Originally Posted by tontoz
The operative word in that sentence is FAIL.
It isn't just about the points the player scores it is about the points the team scores. Better floor spacing makes it easier for his teamates to score.
And the same can be said about players that regularly attack and draw defenders away from their teammates, also drawing more fouls in the process. That's a more efficient approach overall, and historically thats usually been more of a superstars' role then creating floor spacing, which is usually reserved for sharpshooter role players.
I'm not just talking about fast breaks but higher uptempo possessions in general. And 13.6 points is pretty significant. All that tells me is if a team is missing more shots, which they would on 3s, then more defensive rebounds for the other team will result and more fast break points in general.