West conf finals Lakers-Spurs pre-series analysis

Sportsnation poll:

1) Are the Lakers and Spurs the two best teams remaining in the playoffs?

76.1% Yes
23.9% No

2) How many games will be won by the visiting team?

67.2% One
27.2% Two
3.8% Three
1.8% Four or more

3) Which team is better on the offensive end?

56.7% Lakers
43.3% Spurs

4) Which team is better on the defensive end?

87.8% Spurs
12.2% Lakers

5) Which team has the edge off the bench?

61.9% Spurs
38.1% Lakers

6) Which coach would you rather have on the sideline?

56.3% Gregg Popovich
43.7% Phil Jackson

7) Which player would be your first choice for a potential game-winning play?

50.7% Kobe Bryant
28.9% Manu Ginobili
10.1% Tim Duncan
10.0% Tony Parker
0.3% Pau Gasol

8) Which is a tougher place to play?

67.4% AT&T Center
32.6% Staples Center

9) Which series did you most want to see?

74.8% Lakers vs. Spurs
25.2% Lakers vs. Hornets

10) Which team will win this series?

32.2% Spurs, 4-2
26.3% Lakers, 4-2
10.8% Spurs, 4-1
10.4% Spurs, 4-3
8.4% Lakers, 4-3
6.6% Lakers, 4-1
3.3% Spurs, 4-0
1.8% Lakers, 4-0

Total Votes: 86,301

I think Gasol has Duncan down,because of that the Spurs have no good centers.but my star machup is kb24 vs bruce.Remember,this is defence vs mvp offence

Lakers are 2-2 against the Spurs this season
but 3 of those games were with Kwame Brown

So according to Laker practice reports, it looks like Radman will start out guarding Ginobili and Kobe will be on Bowen. Lamar to guard Oberto and Pau on Duncan.

I'm excited to see how Kobe plays against the Spurs in a 7 game series

[QUOTE=hotsizzle]So according to Laker practice reports, it looks like Radman will start out guarding Ginobili and Kobe will be on Bowen. Lamar to guard Oberto and Pau on Duncan.[/QUOTE]

IMO that's a complete lie put out by the Laker camp as a stratagem. No way does Radman EVER guard Manu, much less to start the game, which would allow him to get hot early.

[QUOTE=Loki]IMO that's a complete lie put out by the Laker camp as a stratagem. No way does Radman EVER guard Manu, much less to start the game, which would allow him to get hot early.[/QUOTE]

i believe this is based on the spurs putting ginobli in the starting lineup.

fish-parker
kobe-bowen
vlad-ginobli
odom-oberto
pau-duncan

if they start finley, then vlad would guard him. that's my guess anyway.

[QUOTE=jan803]i believe this is based on the spurs putting ginobli in the starting lineup.

fish-parker
kobe-bowen
vlad-ginobli
odom-oberto
pau-duncan

if they start finley, then vlad would guard him. that's my guess anyway.[/QUOTE]

If Radman guards Ginobili for more than a few minutes of game 1 (if that), I'll eat my words.

[QUOTE=Loki]If Radman guards Ginobili for more than a few minutes of game 1 (if that), I'll eat my words.[/QUOTE]

so who's going to be vlad's man then?

no need to eat your words...but if you need a napkin for your lap...:D

[QUOTE=jan803]so who's going to be vlad's man then?

no need to eat your words...but if you need a napkin for your lap...:D[/QUOTE]

He'll be guarding Bowen imo. He may start on Manu, but it won't last for more than a quarter, and they won't revisit that matchup for the rest of the series. Manu would light him up like a candlestick.

I don't think it's going to come down to 'Kobe vs Bowen', 'Fisher vs Parker', 'Gasol vs Duncan' matchups on defense. Both teams have players who are so good on offense that you can't just expect one player to stop them. There's no way Bowen is going to stop Kobe for 48 minutes a game. Just as there's no way Fisher is going to stop Parker for 48 minutes. Same could be said for other matchups.

It's going to be the [I]team defense [/I]as a whole that decides who wins - how quickly guys can rotate and help out, whether the next guy knows where he should go; being able to get up and cover that open man while [I]knowing that your teammates will rotate fast enough to switch and close everyone out[/I]... the kind of stuff that comes with experience, team chemistry and excellent coaching.

In the Suns series, far too often I'd see Suns players not rotating properly because they didn't know/trust if a teammate was coming to back them up. You can't have much confidence contesting an Ime Udoka jumpshot when you know you'll leave Nash needing to realise he needs to rotate onto Ginobili. Unfortunately for me, watching the Spurs team D compared to the Suns' (for most of the time anyway) was like a night and day comparison.

It just comes down to how well these guys have been coached in team defense. That's going to be the key in this series, imo.

Lakers in 5, Lakers win Game 4 in San Antonio solidifying how strong they are. Remember last 3 games(if necessary) go LA-SA-LA. If not 5, this series will go 7 to the Lakers. Every game is going to be a battle. Nobody will be winning by more than 8 points in any game, no blowouts this series. Each game will go down to the last 2 minutes.

Sidenote: my spurs analysis will be short because we all know what they can do. San Antonio plays solid D and can have its days of being explosive on offense, when they aren’t being their usual efficient selves. Nothing here changes. On the other hand, plenty has changed for the Lakers.

These are not the same Lakers from years past. Pau is great post player, respectable shooter, and above avg passer(4.7 apg playoffs). Odom has a new lease on life driving hard to the basket and even harder to clean the boards. Sasha “the machine!!!!!!” is shooting terrific, as long as it’s a set shot.

Ariza, should he playe, will be the true X-factor of the Lakers on both sides of the court, slashing, running the break and scoring regularly; On defense he fills passing lanes, gets his hands on loose balls or weak passes with occasional key rebounds. Pure energy .

Lakers Version.07.08. are overwhelmingly different breed of past purple n gold squads. No longer are they solely a Kobe-Kobe-Kobe offense...you will be amazingly surprised. I am guaranteeing anybody doubting or unfamiliar with the Lakers, especially Spurs fans, are going be shocked at how efficiently beautiful the offense is. Defense still has many things to be desired, but they can put together stretches of great D, enough to win games and hopefully a championship, Unlike the spurs who play 48 minutes of solid defense.

The Lakers are no longer a doormat to easy wins.

Great match up across the board. A couple mismatches stand out, spurs have a superior guard in Parker, where the Lakers don't have an equally superior guard-defender. Farmar is surely not the answer against a quick drive heavy guard in Parker. Fisher and Vujacic will be the main options against Mr. Longoria(damn shes fine). Parker driving to the basket will be the key to Spurs wins and he will be successful for the most part.

As for the Lakers, Odoms size and talent will create problems across the board for Popovich. Timmy will be preoccupied with Pau. So Kurt Thomas and Oberto will be Odoms primary defenders. If Odoms jump shot is consistently going down, which i do not expect, this series is over for the spurs. Odom is no longer the clumsy lazy offensive clown he used to be. He finish's at the basket and rebounds hard on both ends. Spurs will focus on shutting Odom down more than Kobe.

I hate to use a <, > or = chart. But it is easy to read. I will stop myself from doing it.

[B]Matchups[/B]

[B]gasol vs duncan[/B]...both guys will get theirs. I almost want to say this is going to be a wash of great big men. Don’t get me wrong guys DUNCAN IS A BALLER. So is gasol. Duncan will shoot a slightly below avg fg% basketball fans are used to. Gasol is as important to the Lakers as much as kobe at this point in the playoffs. Gasol opens up the floor for both Kobe and Odom to do their work in space, much how Duncan does exactly the same for Parker and ginobili. Opening up passing lanes, driving lanes and provides a sure handed low post presence for easy baskets or even a great mid-range shooter. Most importantly everybody on the Lakers trusts Pau to score anytime. Especially Phil Jackson, In game 6 vs the Jazz Gasol was the center of the offense. . He is also shooting 56.8% from the field during the playoffs, 59% during the regular season(message: he is consistent).

Pop is better off putting Oberto or Thomas on Pau to play roughhouse on Gasol. He was clearly struggling to get those easy baskets around the hoop vs utah. This defensive strategy has it drawbacks Pau is a great ft shooter unlike Duncan. Both players have fallen off their regular season numbers. Gasol 79 down to 71%. Duncan 69 down to 65%. Both guys shoot 4-6 fts a game.

Lakers defensive counter will be Turiaf on Duncan. Ronnie can play excellent help defense against both guards and bigs. Offensively, he can be semi-force every other game. DD Mbenga will also be used to pick up fouls against Timmy.

Duncan is Duncan. He gets ISH done. Providing for himself and finding his teammates once he draws the double team. Pau’s length will give him some issues. Also Duncan will hardly find a chance to rest on the court guarding either Pau or Lamar.

[B]Kurt Thomas/Oberto vs Odom [/B]dead even on rebounds but Odom is superior to both guys combined on offense. Thomas and Oberto will stay in front of Odom very well. Odom will be effective but not explosive. Odom will avg 17 pts a game.

Kurt and Oberto will get their garbage point’s ala Kurt goggles Rambis. Mostly their presense will be felt on the defensive end versus both Gasol and Lamar. Both players could minimize Gasol/Odom effectiveness as rebounders.

[B]Kobe vs Bowen.[/B] Offense vs Defense. Offense generally wins in one-on-one matchups, when we are analyzing elite players. We could easily see Bowen on Odom even though he is giving up 3 inches and a lot of reach. Bowen would only need to stop Odom from driving. What else am I going to say here. No way Bowen locks kobe down.

Bowen will strangely find Vujacic guarding out on the perimeter. Getting a taste of his own medicine. Sasha is the Lakers version of Bowen, pesky defender minus the on court maturity of Bruce.

[B]Finley/Ime Udoka/ Ginobili vs Vujacic/Radman/Luke Walton[/B] ...They all play guard/forward positions.

Ginobili is the only BALLER from the group. Great all around player, can be a streaky shooter at times. Offense or defense Ginobili doesn’t have any holes in his game. Plenty of 3’s, assists, stls, rebounds, driving to the basket, high ft% and low turnovers. On any given night he will have any mixture of high rebounds or assists or threes or free throws.. I know first hand about Ginobili’s explosive stat lines. The guy helped me win a fantasy championship with a $1000+ prize along with CP3, Dirk, Jamison and Camby. TOOT TOOT.

Finley/udoka/Vujacic/Radman are all the same player on offense. 3point specialists with the occasional mid range jumper or layup. On defense they are completely different.

Walton is a glue guy. Who can put up 5 rebs and 5 assist nights. Triangle offense loves when Walton is hitting the open layups, jumpers, open slashers, turnaround post play. Walton played like crap all regular season. Thankfully as a laker fan…he is playing better in the post season.


[B]Parker/vaughn vs fisher/farmar[/B] Parker gets the clear edge on offense here. Respectable defender as well. His quick feet will find him at the basket a lot, especially considering the Lakers are weak interior defenders especially when their guards are broken down at the front of the play. Fisher and especially farmar are susceptible to the ole defense forcing help d to come. Making Parker twice as effective as a scorer or passer.

Derek Derek Derek…I never wanted you to leave. Lakers should have paid you years ago. Thanks for not holding a grudge and returning. Fisher is shooting the second highest fg% of his 12 year career.43.6%. Derek stepped up his game during the playoffs, shooting 51.4%, making him the 4th laker starter, to shoot above 50% during the playoffs. Kobe 49.5% close enough. Pau 56.4%, Lamar 51.9%. Luke 54.4%. Sasha shot at or above 50% 8 out of 10 playoff games. Two bad shooting games put his average at 45.8%

[B]Bench vs Bench[/B]. Lakers are deep. So are the Spurs. Lakers have more talent though.

Ariza/Turiaf/ Vujacic/ Walton/Farmar/ MBenga/ Mihm

Thomas/Finley/ udoka/ Vaughn/ horry/ bonner/barry


Bottom-line…we have two great teams facing each other for the right to a finals appearance. These teams are so evenly matched it’s very hard to pick a clear outright winner or to even break down the match ups. But I tried my best. Hope you guys learned something new. I could do more…but I have done plenty.

[QUOTE=3stat2]I don't think it's going to come down to 'Kobe vs Bowen', 'Fisher vs Parker', 'Gasol vs Duncan' matchups on defense. Both teams have players who are so good on offense that you can't just expect one player to stop them. There's no way Bowen is going to stop Kobe for 48 minutes a game. Just as there's no way Fisher is going to stop Parker for 48 minutes. Same could be said for other matchups.

It's going to be the [I]team defense [/I]as a whole that decides who wins - how quickly guys can rotate and help out, whether the next guy knows where he should go; being able to get up and cover that open man while [I]knowing that your teammates will rotate fast enough to switch and close everyone out[/I]... the kind of stuff that comes with experience, team chemistry and excellent coaching.

In the Suns series, far too often I'd see Suns players not rotating properly because they didn't know/trust if a teammate was coming to back them up. You can't have much confidence contesting an Ime Udoka jumpshot when you know you'll leave Nash needing to realise he needs to rotate onto Ginobili. Unfortunately for me, watching the Spurs team D compared to the Suns' (for most of the time anyway) was like a night and day comparison.

It just comes down to how well these guys have been coached in team defense. That's going to be the key in this series, imo.[/QUOTE]

Great point...and absolutely spot on. Parker will break down his man...forcing odom or gasol to help leaving their man open. Parker is good enough to drop dimes to duncan/thomas/ oberto. This will happen alot unless Parker just takes it to the rack.

[QUOTE=Loki]If Radman guards Ginobili for more than a few minutes of game 1 (if that), I'll eat my words.[/QUOTE]

Start eating...Phil likes to challenge his players. Radmans length could give Manu some issue for at least a little bit. Buying the Lakers time and resting kobe early in the game and series. Before Phil actually has to move Kobe onto Manu in the 2nd half or earlier. Depending on manu's effectiveness.

Its a completely viable option.

[QUOTE=hoss805]Lakers are 2-2 against the Spurs this season
but 3 of those games were with Kwame Brown[/QUOTE]

wow.. that's a shocking stat. so was it 2-1 or 1-2 with kwame?

i'm rooting for the lakers. if spurs meet boston in the finals i'll cancel my cable subscription

however, i feel that spurs have a stronger bench which is critical