Deep research/stat check - top 3 or 4 seeds lead by 33+ year olds.

[Dr. Cheesesteak]

In the past...10-15 years or so, how many Top 3-4 seeds have been LEAD by a 33+ year old player?

I'm aware of the ring winners like 35 y/o Lebron (had prime AD, asterisk season), 37 y/o Duncan (31 y/o TP was the real leader/best player, had Kawhi), 33 y/o Steph (no real argument against him...he was legit the #1 guy by a mile), but I'm curious about all top 4 seeds.

I've theorized for a while that you NEED a prime age (25-31) top player on your team to win a title, at least in the past dozen years or so (even Kobe was 31 his last title, Dirk was 32). And the Warriors, Nets, and Heat are sorta showing 33+ y/o dudes can lead a team...but can't lead a team to true contention. Season is young, I know, and Nets getting Kyrie back may help (5-3 w/o him tho) and Warriors may start feeling it now. But we'll see where they are at the end of the season.

[RRR3]

Tony Parker was never better than Duncan.

[warriorfan]

big dick dingo

[ImKobe]

I think it's fine up until the mid-30s. There's just too many examples of 33-35 y.o superstars still being elite and having success (high seed and/or a title). If you say 33+, then you got Russell, Wilt/West, Kareem, Bird/McHale, MJ, Hakeem, Stockton/Malone, Nash, Kobe, Duncan, CP3, Bran & Curry and I'm sure there's a few that I didn't think of immediately that would qualify.

KD and Curry are both still arguably top 5 in the league based on their production. The longevity should only increase moving forward as teams constantly rest their superstars on B2Bs and against bad teams and don't play them as much nor practice as hard as they used to. Steph and KD are both elite shooters who don't need to dominate the ball, so logically they should be able to play at their currently level for at least another couple years before their athletic decline really shows in their game. The league is as soft as it's ever been and their scoring efficiency is still as high as ever.

[Phoenix]

Are we considering CP3 or Booker as the 'leader' of the Suns? Because if it's CP3 he's been leading the Suns at 36 and 37 to top 1/2 seeds the last two seasons.

In general though, 33 in 2022 isn't like 33 from 30 years or even 20. And as ImKobe said above, it's situational. Steph is an all-time shooter/ball-handler with great endurance-based athletism. KD is near 7 foot and a sniper. Until such time as father time takes away their bodies ability to do what their mind wants, they'll do what they're doing now for a few more years. Hell, Reggie was a starter until 40. I see no reason why Steph couldn't be moved completely off-ball and operate just as a spot-up shooter at 40. He's not going to all of a sudden lose his shooting by then.

[ArbitraryWater]

Just checking in to say, loving the conversation thats going on here!

[Dr. Cheesesteak]

I think it's fine up until the mid-30s. There's just too many examples of 33-35 y.o superstars still being elite and having success (high seed and/or a title). If you say 33+, then you got Russell, Wilt/West, Kareem, Bird/McHale, MJ, Hakeem, Stockton/Malone, Nash, Kobe, Duncan, CP3, Bran & Curry and I'm sure there's a few that I didn't think of immediately that would qualify.

I think our current perception of what is "old" in the NBA has affected our view of the past. Hakeem was 32 his last title. MJ was 34. Nash was still mid-30s on those 2nd stint Suns? And had prime Marion and prime Amare throughout that stretch. He maybe was the leader by default for being the PG, but I would say it's debatable if he was the best player, especially with prime Amare.

I'll give you Stockton and Malone. I know they were older than MJ. Kareem had prime Magic, Worthy, etc. I won't look up the others, but trust me, "old dudes" back in the 90s and before WERE NOT OLD by today's standards. Of course, as stated in OP, I am only looking at Finals teams. Maybe those dudes still lead contenders at 33+...but just didn't win the Finals. I really can't remember.

Load mgmt has spoiled us as it extended players' careers and now makes us think "33" is prime age, when...it's really not. Save a few generational exceptions.


Tony Parker was never better than Duncan.
TP had seasons where he clearly lead the team on the floor, even being in MVP discussions in some seasons, won a FMVP. And yes, he was better than Duncan some years. 2013-14 debatably one of them (had better ppg, fga, and fg% than Duncan).

edit:

Are we considering CP3 or Booker as the 'leader' of the Suns? Because if it's CP3 he's been leading the Suns at 36 and 37 to top 1/2 seeds the last two seasons.

In general though, 33 in 2022 isn't like 33 from 30 years or even 20. And as ImKobe said above, it's situational. Steph is an all-time shooter/ball-handler with great endurance-based athletism. KD is near 7 foot and a sniper. Until such time as father time takes away their bodies ability to do what their mind wants, they'll do what they're doing now for a few more years. Hell, Reggie was a starter until 40. I see no reason why Steph couldn't be moved completely off-ball and operate just as a spot-up shooter at 40. He's not going to all of a sudden lose his shooting by then.
agreed. As for CP3 and Booker, I suppose I should clarify "lead". CP3 leads by default just for being the PG and a veteran. I suppose I mean actually being the best player, even being the best player "without a doubt" maybe. In which case, I would say it's Booker.

Nash and Steph and, sure, CP3 make me think smaller dudes maybe can still be the main man on a contending team. Their bodies can last longer than bigger wings and bigs.

edit2:
Also, digging deeper, Bird/McHale were 33-34 and still got #2 seed in the East in 1991. Wonder if ppl gave them a legit shot that season or if it was like an "empty" seeding. Besides, times were different then, just by the volume and spread of talent alone. Why I'm asking for just the past 10-15 years.

[ImKobe]

I think our current perception of what is "old" in the NBA has affected our view of the past. Hakeem was 32 his last title. MJ was 34. Nash was still mid-30s on those 2nd stint Suns? And had prime Marion and prime Amare throughout that stretch. He maybe was the leader by default for being the PG, but I would say it's debatable if he was the best player, especially with prime Amare.

I'll give you Stockton and Malone. I know they were older than MJ. Kareem had prime Magic, Worthy, etc. I won't look up the others, but trust me, "old dudes" back in the 90s and before WERE NOT OLD by today's standards. Of course, as stated in OP, I am only looking at Finals teams. Maybe those dudes still lead contenders at 33+...but just didn't win the Finals. I really can't remember.



Oh, only Finals teams? I thought the qualifier was either a high seed or a Finals appearance. In that case the list is a little bit shorter of course.

Longevity has definitely improved as the league gets softer and with players load managing + having better medical options and more advanced nutrition to keep themselves in great shape for longer. Reggie is a player I left off the list, he led a team to the Finals at 34 and his longevity is a prime example of what you should see more of going forward with these volume shooters who don't necessarily take a lot of punishment inside the paint and manage to avoid injury as a result of their play style.

Jordan was 35 in the '98 Playoffs, Hakeem was 34 in '97 when his team won 57 games and made the WCF. Most of the big names were pretty damn old in the mid-90s and that's without the load management and the advances in medicine and nutrition. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a 40+ year old superstar (Steph or KD, maybe even Lebron) who's still leading a team to a high seed and/or a deep Playoff run in the near future.