ESPN Insider Request [Archive] - Message Board Basketball Forum

JimmyMcAdocious

10-13-2014, 07:47 PM

http://i.imgur.com/n4ogAFj.png

My SCHOENE projection system is unique among NBA player projections in that it reflects team context as well as past performance and the development process. As comprehensive as SCHOENE might be, though, there are still times when it can't take everything into account.

With an eye toward fantasy hoops, here's a look at a handful of players I expect to outperform or underperform their SCHOENE projections.

Will Outperform

Chris Bosh | F/C | Miami Heat
SCHOENE projections: 16.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 4.5 wins above replacement player

SCHOENE projects Bosh's scoring average to remain the same as 2013-14 and his rebounding average to improve slightly from last season's 6.6 mark. Given the extra possessions floating around after LeBron James took his talents to Cleveland, that actually means a major decline for Bosh. Of the 50 players SCHOENE considers most similar to Bosh, 74 percent saw their performance drop off during their age-30 season. However, Bosh is more talented than most of the peers to whom he's being compared, which should help him bounce back in a larger role -- maybe not to the 24.0 PPG he averaged his final season in Toronto but at least to the 18-plus he averaged during his first two seasons with the Heat.

Mike Conley, PG | Marc Gasol, C | Zach Randolph, PF | Memphis Grizzlies
SCHOENE projections (Conley): 15.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 6.0 APG, 8.9 WARP
SCHOENE projections (Gasol): 13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 6.0 WARP
SCHOENE projections (Randolph): 15.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 3.6 WARP

There must be something in the waters of the Mississippi. SCHOENE is pessimistic about all three of the Grizzlies' stars, projecting at least a 64 percent chance they are unable to match last season's performance. Randolph skepticism is understandable, given his age (33). However, since he relies so little on his athleticism, his performance has leveled off over the past three seasons. Gasol won't be 30 until January and Conley just turned 27, so both are unlikely to be noticeably different players this season.

Andre Drummond | C | Detroit Pistons
SCHOENE projections: 14.2 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, 13.4 WARP

Drummond is basically projected to duplicate his 2013-14 stats, with slightly more scoring and slightly less rebounding, and on one level that makes sense. He's not likely to improve his high-percentage finishing or league-leading rebound rate. Still, I think Drummond could be even more effective in Stan Van Gundy's system. Improved spacing should give Drummond more room to operate down low, and Van Gundy knows how to develop an athletic but unpolished big man into a go-to threat, having done so with Dwight Howard.

Terrence Jones | PF | Houston Rockets
SCHOENE projections: 12.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 5.7 WARP

Though Jones is just 22, similar players at the same age were no more likely to improve the following season than not. Like Drummond, Jones' biggest areas for development won't be reflected in the box score. But Jones could step into a larger role too, with Trevor Ariza unlikely to use quite as many possessions as the departed Chandler Parsons. If Jones is consistent, he could emerge as the Rockets' third option on offense.

Jonas Valanciunas | C | Toronto Raptors
SCHOENE projections: 10.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.3 WARP

So far during his brief NBA career, Valanciunas has rated better by the eye test than advanced stats. SCHOENE doesn't project that changing; in fact, 64 percent of similar players performed worse the following season. That's because Valanciunas is being compared to too many overachieving marginal talents. With ample skills that made him a lottery pick, Valanciunas doesn't belong. He should take a solid step forward.

Will Underperform

Michael Carter-Williams | PG | Philadelphia 76ers
SCHOENE projections: 20.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.6 APG, 7.5 WARP

Don't stare directly at Carter-Williams' projection; it might cause eye damage. Per Basketball-Reference.com, only one NBA player in the past decade has averaged at least 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per game, and his name is LeBron James. It's easy to see why Carter-Williams could plausibly join that exclusive club (just 19 players have ever gone 20/6/6). There are even fewer other scoring options in Philly than last season, and young point guards tend to develop quickly. I would still bet against Carter-Williams being so good, so fast, especially after a summer spent rehabbing following shoulder surgery rather than working on his shot.

Kyrie Irving | PG | Cleveland Cavaliers
SCHOENE projections: 22.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 6.8 APG, 13.3 WARP

As a player, Irving may be every bit as good as SCHOENE projects. As a fantasy contributor? Not likely. Quietly, last season's Sacramento Kings joined the 2007-08 Golden State Warriors as the lone teams in the past two decades with at least three players (DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas) to average at least 20 PPG. Neither of those teams had a single scorer as dominant as LeBron, and even if James is more unselfish, it's hard to figure out how a third player is going to average 20 points alongside two of the league's four leading scorers last season (James third at 27.1 PPG and Kevin Love fourth at 26.1 PPG). The extra ball handlers also figure to cut into Irving's assist rate, hampering his fantasy value.

Dwyane Wade | SG | Miami Heat
SCHOENE projections: 21.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 10.3 WARP

While Bosh isn't getting enough credit for his chances of improving his per-game stats, I think Wade's are overstated. Because Wade was better in previous seasons, SCHOENE projects improvement from his 2013-14 level of play. That's hard to imagine given the extra responsibility he will have without James as a wingman. If Wade is unable to sit out half of back-to-backs to rest and has to log more minutes per game (I've projected 34 MPG, up from 32.9 last season), the grind will take a toll on his per-minute performance.

Kemba Walker | PG | Charlotte Hornets
SCHOENE projections: 17.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.9 APG, 9.2 WAR

Walker's 2014-15 projection is close to a carbon copy of his numbers the past two seasons. I'm skeptical he will look quite so good, at least in terms of per-game performance. Per NBA.com/Stats, Walker held possession for 7.7 minutes per game last season, which ranked fourth in the league. The addition of Lance Stephenson figures to cut into Walker's time on the ball. Stephenson had possession for three minutes per game, almost 40 percent more than incumbent Charlotte shooting guard Gerald Henderson. So expect Walker's scoring and assist averages to head south.