Unusual Numbers in Fantasy Superstar Stat Lines
By Jordan Katz | Dec. 5, 2005
So we’re about a month into the season and we’ve seen some pretty notable things. We’ve seen the Hornets get as many wins already as we thought they would all season. We’ve seen Camby possessed, the Kings perplexed, and Kobe obsessed, with shooting that is. We’ve seen Artest and an advertisement for a hairdo but surprisingly no drop kicks to the opposing team. We’ve seen some of our sleepers bust out and others ride the bench, and we’ve seen some pretty weird stuff from our superstars.
A handful of our All-Stars are putting up numbers that we didn’t expect. Below I discuss some unusual numbers in the stat lines of our early fantasy picks and decipher whether these surprising trends will continue or take a turn back toward normalcy.
Rebounding Like the Other O’Neal
Jermaine O’Neal – (Ind – PF,C) – The lesser of the two O’Neals has been cleaning glass like we didn’t expect. He’s had an 18 board game and two 15 board games and his average is up to 10.9 from 8.8 last year. Will this trend continue? NO, with Foster out from injury and Croshere in, O’Neal has actually been playing center quite a bit more. Croshere has been jacking threes, leaving O’Neal as the only big body to wipe the offensive glass. With the starting center back in Foster’s return, O’Neal stands in the paint alongside a guy who grabs 9 a game and is a monster on the offensive boards. He goes back to PF and his board numbers go back to acceptable, but not overly enjoyable. Hey, at least this O’Neal has no association whatsoever with a movie about a boy and his best friend genie. Kazaam! Flopzaam!
Fierce Pierce
Paul Pierce (Bos SG, SF) – Pierce is 6’6, yet in three of his last five games, he’s pulled down double digit rebounds. He’s averaging a mind-blowing and team-leading 9 boards a game. He’s the guard on your fantasy team! Last season, Pierce grabbed a nice 6.6 boards a game but this year’s 9 is a significant improvement. Will this trend continue? YES, With Pierce and Ricky D playing more minutes together, Pierce has been playing more in the block, guarding players who play closer to the rim, and so when it’s time to clean the glass, Pierce has his Windex ready, and all he has to do is turn and take. With Lafrentz enjoying the weather on beautiful three point island, Pierce has an even greater chance to grab offensive boards as well.
I’ll Take Kobe For THREE, Please.
Kobe Bryant (Lal – SG) – He takes 106 shots a game. Some of those have to be threes right? Well, no. This season Kobe is averaging .9 threes out of 3.2 attempts a game. Last season, Kobe had a nice fantasy average of 2 out of 6 threes a game. Will this trend continue? YES. Though he may think differently, Kobe’s job is not to score 76 points a game, but rather to help lead his team to victory. Phil likes efficiency and you can see it as he faces twists in horror each time Kobe jacks up a prayer. Last time Kobe was under Phil’s command, he averaged 1.1 out of 3.3 threes a game. Jacking up threes under Phil is like drafting Marvin Williams instead of Chris Paul when you need a point a point guard and have 16 swingmen already. It’s just not smart and it doesn’t make for winning basketball. If Kobe plays in the system like he’s supposed to, his threes will average to about 1, 1.5 max a game this season. Don’t pout. Take Kobe’s 35 ppg, remember the good old days of Kobe and Shaq, and smile. Try not to think of the fact that Mihm is your center, or that you’re counting on Kwame Brown for well, anything.
Brand For MVP?
Elton Brand (LAC – PF) You think EB, you think 20 and 10, but this year that won’t do justice. I know it’s not a 10 point difference, but EB is consistently scoring more this season and his average has spiked up to 24 ppg. They have scorers on that team, but Brand continues to get his, plus some. Will this trend continue? Yes, The Clips have two experienced guards in Mobley and Cassell who can feed Brand the ball when he’s in position to take higher percentage shots. This is why his fg% is up as well. They have outside shooting this year so defenders are hesitant to leave their man and double up on Brand in the paint. The team knows this and they also know that EB is their most consistent form of 2 points each time down the floor. Even irregularly large muscle man Corey Magget-me-the-ball is playing to win and not just to score. And to think, ‘pass’ was as foreign a word to him as ‘no’ is to the Hilton sisters. It looks like the time has finally come. No more rips on the Clips.
Not As Big, Ben?
Ben Wallace (Det – PF,C) The defensive juggernaut is a beast, and yes, I would pay the ridiculous pay per view prices to watch Ben vs. Artest in a no holds barred rumble; an idea proposed by Artest and ignored by Big Ben. Ben’s primarily a shot-blocker and rebounder but his blocks are at 1.7 a game for the season and at 1 a game in his last five which has me worrying.
Fun fact: Not only is Greg Ostertag still in the NBA, but he has the same number of blocks as Ben, and Ostertag only plays 18 minutes a game. Maybe that’s more of a sad fact than a fun one. Will this trend continue? YES. Last season Ben averaged 2.5 swats a game. The season before, 3 blocks, in 02-03, 3.15 blocks, and in 01-02, a whopping 3.5 blocks a game. His block averages have been in decline since 01-02 which leads me to believe that Big Ben is to defense what Mick Jagger is to Rock N’ Roll. Still the man, but it’s all getting a bit old. It seems like Ben’s been figured out. Where’s the Big Ben block party highlights? Has the Prince stolen the show?
But wait. There may be hope. It’s a contract year, and so block parties could be plentiful once again. I mean, if money could make Jerome James do something crazy like learn to play basketball, then anything could happen in a contract year. And guess what? Ben’s ft is up to 56%, higher than it’s ever been! Did someone say pathetic? Yes, it was half the crowd at The Palace that could actually shoot better than they’re center from the stripe. I mean come on; even I’m like 75%.
We Miss the Assists
Mike Bibby (Sac – PG) Does this guy not look exactly like a bigger version of Mini Me? The similarities are striking. I mean, really. On to what’s relevant, I hope you bought low or kept him around like I told you to because Bibby is back on track. His points, threes, and steals have spiked since that dreadful start, but his assists are still missing. He’s averaged 25 points over his last five games but only 3.46 assists, and that’s only 4.3 per game on the season. Will this trend continue? Yes/No Ok, ok. I’m not giving a clear cut answer because while I think his assists will spike a bit soon, I don’t see them reaching the 6.8 a game he averaged last season. Shareef and Bonzi aren’t really catch and shoot players like Webber off the roll or Mobley spotting up. He’s got Peja and ‘stat filler’ Miller to hit their shots but the new guys are more one on one players, meaning less drive and kick plays and more of that Carmello Anthony fake, fake, fake again, get yelled at by coach, shoot type of plays. Bibby will find a way to raise his assist average but don’t expect 7 dimes a game.
Lebron James (Cle – SF) Lebron ‘The Don’ James (isn’t that a better nickname than King James?) is considered by some, including yours truly as basketball’s next Jordan. He has the supreme athleticism and creativity of MJ, the moves and grace of Magic, and a better outside shot than both. James is scoring like we thought he would but his assists have taken a hit. Down from 7.2 last season to 4.8 so far, he’s not racking up the dimes like we thought he would. Will this trend continue? No. If you’ve had the pleasure of watching the Cavaliers, you’ve seen that Lebron’s sharing the ball has been contagious, spreading to his teammates like mono in a beer pong game. If the assist that leads to the assist counted, James would have far more than he has now, but regardless, on any given night, James has the ability to pull 15 dimes from his pocket. It seems sometimes that James is concerned with scoring more points, but it’s early in the season and as he becomes more acclimated to his new teammates, look for James to take advantage of these new weapons and fill up the stat sheet like we thought he would.
Random NBA Thought of the Week
Ron Artest for MVP? Why am I hearing this? I mean, the guy plays seven games last season, puts up good numbers, and now he’s this season’s sleeper MVP candidate. If the NBA and WWE merged, than sure, I see it, but in this world, I see this guy’s only shot of being the most valuable player being if he beats up the entire opposing team so there’s no game at all, and then shaves insults in their heads while they’re unconscious. I know he’s not totally incompetent but the moment I saw that thing in his head, I actually thought he might truly have no clue how to spell true and warrior, than I realized, he’s probably one of those people who think misspelling words is still kool. (I know, that was lame of me) Back to relevance, he’s not their major offensive threat, he doesn’t make his team play better, and he doesn’t shoot exceptionally well. He’s a good player, and a beast on defense, and sure other players fear he’ll eat them if they foul him too hard, but I just can’t see MVP shaved in the back of his head. Does anyone remember in the first week of the season when Steve Francis fouled Artest than practically begged for forgiveness so as to not get kicked in the face? It was funny, and a good move by the Franchise. Maybe Artest will be MVP of his anger management group therapy sessions, but of the league? I just don’t see it.
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